Sell on Rise …!!!
Planetary Position :: During the current
week Moon would be transiting from Chitta in Libra to Jyestha in Scorpio.
Sun transits in Poorvabhadra in Aquarius.
Mercury transits in Dhanishta in Aquarius.
Venus transits in Revathi in Pisces and moves to Aries on
Friday.
Mars transits in Revathi in Pisces.
Saturn transits in Anuradha constellation in Scropio sign
and in Libra Navamsa and Saturn is in stationary mode ahead of Retrograde
motion.
Jupiter , in retrograde motion from December 9th to
8th April 2015, transits in Cancer in Aslesha
constellation in Capricorn Navamsa .
Rahu and Ketu continue their transit in Virgo and Pisces
respectively.
Moon’s placement between Rahu and Ketu and conjunction
with Saturn would mean more of fear and greed complex among market participants.
Nifty Outlook for Next Week :: (09.03.2015 to 13.03.
2015) …
NIFTY :: 8938 (+36) (Short term Bearishness in the
offing …???)
Nifty closed with marginal gain
amid roller coaster ride. Recent General Budget and Railway Budget
proposals were greeted by the market as Nifty is up about 3% since the
presentation of Economic survey. When the benefit of interest rate cut is
passed on to borrowers, it would be reflected in corporate performance.
However, certain sectors are performing well while certain sectors have been
underperforming. Private Sector Banks, Pharma and IT are the outperforming
sectors while PSU Banks, Metal stocks are the under performers. Market is
optimistic about the future of the economy and is ahead of fundamentals.
Coal allocation would spur
economic growth in fields such as Mining and power and would contribute to the
GDP growth. Reform measures taken by the Government would go a long way in improving the macro fundamentals. GST from
next year would simplify tax regime and ensure ease of doing business. While
Medium / long term outlook appears bright, market appears fully priced from short term point of view and most of the short
term triggers are fully priced in. Parliament proceedings on Land Bill and
other bills could have impact on the market. Hence caution needs to be exercised
in short term.
Further, upcycle in Oil prices could once again lead to
higher inflation and RBI could be constrained not to cut the rates in future. However,
Growth and Inflation need to be
balanced.
20DMA, 50DMA, 100DMA and 200
DMA are placed at about 8790, 8620, 8445 and 8070 respectively and would
act as supports / resistances.
Nifty is above all averages .
Nifty continues to be above 200
DMA and 50 DMA too is above 200 DMA (Golden Cross) suggesting that the
long term bullish trend is
intact. Nifty is quoting at a PE of more than 23.80
which is around 25% above the long term PE multiple.
Nifty EPS fell after Q3 results and the EPS fell from 391 to 374 due to
change in weightage of Nifty constituents. Nifty PE, though not in bubble zone,
is indicating caution and earnings need to improve substantially over the next
Two quarters failing which a reversion to mean with a serious correction
can not be ruled out.
Strong long term support would
be around 8075
level and Medium term support
is 8450.
Technical Levels ::
For the coming week, Nifty spot
is expected to be Bullish above 8960 with
resistance at 9020, 9085, 9125,
9190 and is expected to Bearish below 8915 with Supports at 8855, 8790 8750, 8685.
Short term trend for Nifty is presently bullish and would continue to remain bullish as long as it holds above 8850. However, in view of the sharp fall from higher levels, it appears to have topped out for short term .
Breakout level for the week is 9180, and break down level
for the week is 8780.
Advice for Traders ::
Nifty appears to have topped out for short term and could move
side ways with down ward bias for some time. Hence caution at higher levels / “Sell
on Rise” with 9025 / 9120 as stop loss and which could be trailed slowly as per
the market movement. However, short term bearishness would be confirmed only on
a close below 8850. Traders with high risk appetite can consider short position
on rise with the aforementioned stop loss while traders with low appetite could
wait for the confirmation of bearishness. However, long / medium term trend
continues to be bullish and investors with long / medium term horizon can
accumulate quality stocks in stages.
Weekly Open level is very important for the entire week.
Short positions may be avoided as long as it maintains / closes above
Weekly open and vice versa
Short positions may be avoided as long as it maintains / closes above
Weekly open and vice versa
