Pullback in the Offing
.. …!!!
Planetary
Position :: During the current week Moon would be
transiting from Aslesha in Cancer to Pubba in Leo. .
Sun transits in
Uttarabhadra and Revathi in Pisces.
Mercury
transits in Uttarabhadra
in Pisces.
Venus transits in
Bharani in Aries.
Mars transits in
Aswini in Aries.
Saturn transits in
Anuradha constellation in Scropio sign and in Libra Navamsa and remains
in retrograde motion from 14th March to 2nd August,
2015.
Jupiter , in
retrograde motion from December 9th to 8th April
2015, transits in Cancer in Aslesha constellation in
Sagittarius Navamsa .
Rahu and Ketu continue
their transit in Virgo and Pisces respectively.
Nifty trading
below the monthly astro reference range achieved the first target of sub
8300. It is possible for a rebound particularly after Jupiter turns Direct from
8thApril as Bank stocks could show signs of stability.
Nifty Outlook for Next
Week :: (30.03.2015 to 01.04. 2015) …
NIFTY :: 8341
(-230) (Oversold … Technical Bounce …)
Nifty lost about 3% last week due to global
cues and derivative expiry woes. Most of the fall was experiencenced on
Thursday, derivative expiry day. However, Friday’s trading pattern suggests
that the short term bottom could be in place as it had formed a “Hammer”
pattern. Market needs to trade above the Friday;s high to confirm this pattern.
Further, current week being a truncated week with Two trading holidays, it could
lead to a low volume week with lesser participation. Market would be keenly
watching RBI policy and then Q4 results. Most stocks had fallen tp come to
reasonable valuations making a case for Medium / long term investment. However,
Nifty is trading well below 100DMA and needs to trade above the same to lend
semblance of stability to the market. Muted performance is expected in Q4 and
if the results show positiveness, market could rebound faster.
Coal allocation would spur economic growth in
fields such as Mining and power and would contribute to the GDP growth. Reform
measures taken by the Government would go a long way in improving the
macro fundamentals. GST from next year would simplify tax regime and ensure
ease of doing business. While Medium / long term outlook appears bright, Nifty
needs to trade above 8550 to remain positive for the year.
20DMA, 50DMA, 100DMA and 200 DMA are placed at
about 8695, 8725, 8535 and 8170 respectively and would
act as supports / resistances. Nifty is
trading all the average , particularly below 100 DMA, which is a matter
of concern.
Nifty continues to be above 200 DMA and 50 DMA
too is above 200 DMA (Golden Cross) suggesting that the
long term bullish trend is intact. Nifty is quoting at a PE of more
than 22 which is more than 15% above the long term PE
multiple. Nifty EPS fell after Q3 results and the EPS fell from 391 to
373 due to change in weightage of Nifty constituents. Nifty PE had fallen
by about 2 points last month due to huge fall in the last Three weeks. Last
major support for Nifty is 200 DMA which is aroung 8175 and in case of further
fall, market can be expected to take support around 8200.
Strong long term support would be around 8175
level and Nifty is below the Medium term
support level of 8525.
Technical Levels ::
For the coming week, Nifty spot is expected to
be Bullish above 8600 with
resistance at 8690, 8790, 8835, 8925 and is
expected to Bearish below 8545 with Supports at 8450, 8365 8305, 8225.
Nifty could not hold at higher levels / pull back levels and fell sharply on
Thurs / Friday and being last week of Derivative expiry is
close to strong support level of about 8500 and can be expected to take
support around 8450 / 8500.
Breakout level for the
week is 8715, and break down level for the week is 8180.
Advice for Traders ::
Nifty came below the
strong support level of 100 DMA with a gap down on Thursday and fell further
and appears to have made a short term bottom for a reasonable pullback.
However, While the long term trend is bullish, Medium term would once again
turn bullish only if Nifty is able sustain above 8500. If Nifty / scrips
sustain above Friday’s high level, Friday’s low level could offer strong
support for short term for a reasonable pullback.
Weekly Open
level is very important for the entire week.
Short positions may be avoided as long as it maintains / closes above
Weekly open and vice versa
COMMODITIES :: (30/3/15 TO
01/04/15)
Copper ::
(385) Copper traded between 399 and 381 last week. It is in short
term uptrend with support at 380 and would be bullish as long as it holds above
356.
Crude Oil
:: (3151) During the week , it traded between 3304 and 2860. It can be
considered as long as it holds above 3000.
$48.87 :: In $ terms,
it would be weak below 47.
Gold :: (26270)
It traded between 26988 and 26080. It is in zigzag / consolidation mode.
Lead :: 114 ::
It appears to have bottomed out . Above 111, it has potential to go
upto 117- There is a strong resistance around 120.
Natural Gas ::
166.60 :: It traded between 175 and 166. After completing pullback it appears
to be heading towards 160.
Silver :: 38395
:: It traded between 39090 and 37333. It can be bought on decline as long
as it holds above 36000.
Zinc :: 130
:: It is in bullish mode with resistance around 135.
