Samvat Forecast and Weekly Forecast

SAMVAT FORECAST, 2070 :: 2013-14  ::  GENERAL BULLISH SENTIMENT

Samvat  2069 has ended the year at the highest level  at 6307 (up from 5684 last year) recording  a rise of more than 10%. However, markets have been muted for last  Four  years  as Nifty is yet to clear  2008 / 2010 peak. (However, it is on the verge of clearing the previous high and sensex had just cleared the previous high).  Current year’s rather unimpressive performance is mainly due to  Domestic   factors  of policy paralysis, inflation etc, Recent rise has been maily due to huge FII inflows. However, earnings have been going up  steadily. For instance Nifty EPS has steadily gone up from about 225 at the beginning of 2010 to about 345 presently. While earnings have been going up, broader indices have been languishing  in a narrow range  for the last Four  years. Considering the above, a reasonable upside is  due from fundamental and technical point of view.  Among sectoral indices, IT index outperformed all other indices by going up by more than 45% (due to rupee depreciation) followed by FMCG. Realty index was the worst performer. Next year depends on the new Government at the centre. If a Government with clear majority takes seat, it would be viewed positively as against a Third front coalition Government, Now, let us analyse what is in store astrologically, for the next Year.

Let us see how the markets can be in the Next Samvat year 2070. On the
basis of Planetary position at the time of Diwali (New year),  and the
transiting planets  during the year the following indications are available
astrologically.

Samvat Year rises in Aries  Lagna (03.11.2013 at 6.20 pm ) with
Ketu  placed in Lagna and  with Jupiter in 3^rd Gemini and Saturn, Rahu, Retro Mercury  and luminaries placed in Libra, the Seventh house. Mars is placed in Leo.  However,  Mercury, the lord for Trade and Commerce are in retrograde position and Dhana Karaka Jupiter is stationary ahead of retrograde motion.  Astrologically, placement of luminaries between malefic Saturn and Rahu and retrograde position of Mercury does not augur well.  However, Jupiter’s aspect on Libra is a saving grace.

 Important dates / period to watch in this Year are 14.11.2013; 1.1..2014; 26.02.2014; 06.03.2014; 17.04.2014; 08.05.2014; 26.05.2014; 19.06.2014; 06.07.2014; 25.07.2014; 21.8.2014; 11.09.2014;  ; Jupiter transit into  exalted Cancer from June 2014 might improve the fortunes of Housing, realestate and infra companies.  May and August 2014 can be expected to be volatile months during the year.

   . Technically, Nifty is expected to face
resistance around 6465, 6630, 6790, 6960, 7125, 7300,7650,8000 and find support around  6150, 5995, 5840, 5685, 5535, 5390.5100,4820   during the year.

While  global cues, FII inflows and Government  policies including Monetary policy of the central bank , Business environment, Currency fluctuation  are  expected to play pivotal role in shaping the economy and in turn stock market,  forthcoming year will be mainly influenced by Elections, new Government and its policies.  Considering, astro, technical and fundamental factors Nifty can be expected to trade between 7500 – 8000 on the upper side and 5500 – 5000 on the downside, barring unforeseen extraneous circumstances.  Hence, Buying on any reasonable decline is suggested.

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Caution at Higher Levels  But Buy on Deep Decline… !!

Astro Technical Guide  and
General outlook for the week (05.11.2013 to 08.11.2013) ::

 Planetary Position ::  During the current week Moon would be
transiting  from Anuradha  in Scorpio    to Poorvashadha in Sagittarius.  Sun transits in Swathi and Visakha constellation in Libra and is sandwiched between Rahu and Saturn.    Mercury ,transits in Swathi constellation in Libra in retrograde motion  from 21^st October to 11^th November. Mercury, a planet of Trade and Commerce, communication, when retrograde characterizes a dull, two way movement market, undependable , misunderstandable communication etc.,.   Mars  transits in  Leo in Pubba   constellation in slower motion . Saturn continues in Libra in  Swathi constellation in   Pisces and Aries navamsa.  Jupiter transits in Gemini in Punarvasu  in Taurus Navamsa. Further, during the week, Jupiter would be moving in retro motion from 7^th November to 6^th March, 2014.  Venus transits in in Moola  constellation Sagittarius sign.Deepwali  New moon on 3^rd November wherein   the luminaries are sandwiched between Two malefic planets Saturn and Rahu and presages a tough time ahead. Sun Saturn conjunction on November 6 also may not augur well for market.  New Samvat year would be commencing from Diwali and Bullishness can be expected on a yearly basis.

Nifty Outlook for Next Week :: 05.11.2013 to 08.11.2013 (Buy on Deep Decline for Medium Term..  Caution at Higher Levels for Short Term )…  

 NIFTY :: 6307 (+162)  

After a week’s respite, Nifty bounced back with renewed vigour  and closed above 6300 mark with a gain of more than 2.50%. FII inflows coupled with better than expected  Q2 results helped indices gain smartly. A process of bottoming is being seen among several economic indicators and the worst appears behind us and as stock market tends to discount future in advance, further uptrend too can be expected over medium term and it is a case of clear “Buy on Decline”. Beaten down sectors could rebound faster than already performing sectors. Same thing happened with Public sector banks last week..In view of  normal monsoon and preelction year, rural economy can be expected to do well which would translate to  better disposable incomes and higher growth. Sensex has already crossed all time high and Nifty is about to cross and further rise is possible in this euphoria. However, investors may wait for retracement to take medium term positions.  Market has clearly become a case of “Buy on Decline”. Further, Nifty has been trading in a range of 4600 to 6300 for more than 4 years and is due for a  powerful breakout sooner than later. Certain underperforming sectors such as Financials, Capital Goods and Infrastructure need to do well if the market and economy is to really take off. All eyes are on forth coming State Elections which could be viewed as a  prelude for the forthcoming Big fight. Stock market discounts future in advance and is ahead of economy and fundamentals and bullish sign in markets presupposes improving fundamentals.  Nifty has been making higher bottoms and can be expected to breakout and make higher tops. “Buy on Decline” may be followed for Medium / long term. Traders should be ever vigilant to track short term movements and presently, a close below 6225 would weaken the short term sentiment.  Nifty is  above 200  DMA  and 50 DMA and the  50DMa also is crossing  200DMA and makes a clear case of “Buy on Decline” with 200 DMA as stop loss. . While short term trend is  is  bullish  and  but close to strong resistance , it would weaken only on a close below 6225.

For the coming week, Nifty spot is expected to face resistance at
6385,  6465, 6550 and find support at 6225, 6150, 6070.

Nifty , presently in short term bearishness, would cease to be bullish if it closes below 6225.

Advice for Traders :: Nifty is all set to make new life time high and gets into unchartered territory. Long positions may be maintained with Stop and Reverse below 6225 (on close basis). However, strong resistance too can be expected between 6400 and 6500 and retrace reasonably thereafter. If Nifty maintains above weekly open, short positions may best be avoided and alternatively, long positions may be continued.

WD Gann’s
natural numbers which would act as natural support and resistance are
, :  6046, 6124, 6202 ,6281, 6361,6441, 6487, 6521  during the week.

Further , Weekly Open level is very important for the entire week.
Short positions may be avoided as long as it maintains / closes above
Weekly open and vice versa

MCX Commodities :: 04/11//13 to 08/11//13 … 

Copper :: (452.50)  Copper traded  between 453 and 444 last week and appears to be in consolidation zone. Neutral range for the next week is 452 and 442 and would become bullish on a firm consecutive closes above 454.

Crude Oil  :: (5996) Crude traded in a narrow range with bearish bias between 6108 and 5930 last week .  For the next week, it would be neutral between 6125 and 5975 and bullish trend would return only on a decisive close above 6150.  In international market, it closed around 96.40 and reasonable pullback can be expected only when it closes above 98. In view of the oversold zone and expectation of a reasonable pullback, fresh shorts are not suggested. However, there is strong resistance at 104.25$ in international market and may not go above the level without making further lows.

Gold :: (29793) Gold traded   between 31164 and 29660 on MCX and between 1362 and 1318 $ in international market. It appears to have completed pullback and on its way down once again. If it closes well below 1318$ in international market, further downside upto 1250$ can be expected over a period of time. Neutral zone for the current week is 30600 and 29900 on MCX. As long as it does not go above 30600 and is preferably below 29900, further downside can be expected upto about 28000.

Lead :: (133.20) Lead traded  in a narrow range between 135.55 and 132.75 last week and is in pullback mode. It would once again get into bearish zone if it closes well below 132. It would be in neutral zone between 135 and 132. It goes below 132 short positions can be created with 135 as stop loss for a possible target of 125 and below. 

Natural Gas :: (223 ) Natural Gas traded between 228.20 and 218.70 and is in consolidation mode.  Neutral range is 227 and 220. There is strong support at 215 and in case it continuously trades above 230, bullishness would once again return.

Silver :: (48431 and 21.97 USD) It traded between 50391 and 48100 on MCX . For the next week, it is neutral between 50000 and 48900. It could not continue to be bullish and appears to have turned bearish. If it closes well below 48000, further downside can be expected. It would turn bullish only if it firmly closes above 50500..

Zinc :: (118.25) Zinc traded in a narrow range  between 119.65 and 117.60  during  last week  and is in  general bearishness and pullback mode  with strong resistance at 124.50. For the next week, neutral range is 119.25 and 117.25.  In case it closes below 117, further downside can be expected.

Commodity price movement is influenced by USD INR movement.

Commodity Trading is highly risky and strict stop loss is to be followed. 

Weekly Astro Guide for Stocks and Commodities (28/10/2013 to 1/11/2013)

RBI Policy Holds the Key…  Possibility of Further Fall too … !!

Astro Technical Guide  and
General outlook for the week (28.10.2013 to 01.11.2013) ::

 Planetary Position ::  During the current week Moon would be
transiting  from Aslesha in Cancer   to Hastha in Virgo .  Sun transits in Swathi constellation in Libra and is in close orb to Rahu and would be sandwiched between Rahu and Saturn later on.   Mercury ,transits in Visakha and Swathi constellation in Libra in retrograde motion  from 21^st October to 11^th November. Mercury, a planet of Trade and Commerce, communication, when retrograde characterizes a dull, two way movement market, undependable , misunderstandable communication etc., When RBI Policy comes during this period, we can imagine how dependable that would be? Hence traders are advised to be cautious and quickly book profits as they can evaporate fast.  Mars  transits in  Leo in Pubba   constellation . Saturn continues in Libra in  Swathi constellation in   Pisces navamsa.  Jupiter transits in Gemini in Punarvasu  in Taurus Navamsa.  Venus transits in in Jyeshta and Moola constellations  in Scorpio  and Sagittarius signs. New moon would take place during weekend and  the luminaries are sandwiched between Two malefic planets Saturn and Rahu and presages a tough time ahead particularly for Government / Government agencies.  Uranus Pluto rapt square on November 1 also could contribute to bearishness / reversal. 

Nifty Outlook for Next Week :: 28.10.2013 to 01.11.2013 (RBI Policy Holds the Key…  Bearish Bias )…  

 NIFTY :: 6145 (-44)  

After three weeks of gain, Nifty retraced about 0.75% amid volatile trade in a narrow range. Market appears cautious ahead of RBI Policy on the 29^th October. So, further movement depends on the outcome of th policy. If RBI Policy disappoints, further fall too can not be ruled out. At the same time, as we enter the last week before Diwali, cautious optimism too can not be ruled out. Hence, this week is crucial as to further fall for about Two weeks or rise on the eve of Diwali. Most of the results of index heavy weight companies are out and they have been generally encouraging. In view of the above normal monsoon and preelction year, rural economy can be expected to do well which would translate to  better disposable incomes and higher growth. However, market is once again close to strong resistance level of 52 week high and also within striking range of life time high which could act as strong hurdles. However, these hurdles would be cleared sooner than later . Whether life time high is achieved  in this attempt or not, market has clearly become a case of “Buy on Decline”. Further, Nifty has been trading in a range of 4600 to 6300 for more than 4 years and is due for a  powerful breakout sooner than later. Certain underperforming sectors such as Financials, Capital Goods and Infrastructure need to do well if the market and economy is to really take off. All eyes are on forth coming State Elections which could be viewed as a  prelude for the forthcoming Big fight. Stock market discounts future in advance and is ahead of economy and fundamentals and bullish sign in markets presupposes improving fundamentals.  Nifty has been making higher bottoms and can be expected to breakout and make higher tops. “Buy on Decline” may be followed for Medium / long term. Traders should be ever vigilant to track short term movements and presently, a close below 6115 would weaken the short term sentiment.  Nifty is  above 200  DMA  and 50 DMA and the only hitch is 50DMa being below 200DMA. While short term trend is  is cautiously bullish  and  but close to strong resistance , it would weaken only on a close below 6115.

For the coming week, Nifty spot is expected to face resistance at
6225,  6300, 6385 and find support at 6065, 5990, 5910.

Nifty appears on the verge of becoming bearish for short term, once it closes below 6115.

Advice for Traders :: Nifty encountered strong resistance at higher levels and closed with a minor decline for the week and is cautious ahead of crucial RBI Policy on Tuesday. If Nifty falls post RBI event, further fall can be expected till First week of November. Hence, caution is advised and short positions can be created after RBI event if Nifty closes below 6115. Further, in view of the last week of Derivative expiry, scrip specific action can be expected.  

WD Gann’s
natural numbers which would act as natural support and resistance are
, : 5891, 5968, 6046, 6124, 6202 ,6281, 6361,6441  during the week.

Further , Weekly Open level is very important for the entire week.
Short positions may be avoided as long as it maintains / closes above
Weekly open and vice versa

MCX Commodities :: 28/10//13 to 01/11//13 … 

Copper :: (446.40)  Copper traded  between 457 and 443 last week and appears to be in consolidation zone. Neutral range for the next week is 455 and 447 and would become bullish on a firm consecutive closes above 456.

Crude Oil  :: (6045) Crude traded quite weak between 6215 and 5937 last week .  For the next week, it would be neutral between 6150 and 6025 and bullish trend would return only on a decisive close above 6200.  In international market, it closed around 98 and reasonable pullback can be expected. In view of the oversold zone and expectation of a reasonable pullback, fresh shorts are not suggested. However, there is strong resistance at 104.25$ in international market and may not go above the level without making further lows.

Gold :: (30734) Gold traded   between 30824 and 29613 on MCX and between 1356 and 1309 $ in international market. It is in pullback mode and can be expected to find resistance at higher levels and again come down. Neutral zone for the current week is 30000 and 29400 on MCX. As long as it holds above 30000, pullback can be expected to continue. In international market too, it is in pullback mode with strong resistance at 1375$. Hence, rate in international market may be tracked and short positions may be taken on rise with $1375 as strict stop loss  or below 30000 in domestic market with high level till then as stop loss.   

Lead :: (134.30) Lead traded  between 135.15 and 131.60 last week and is in pullback mode. It would be in neutral zone between 134 and 131.50. While it is bearish in general, further pullback can be expected as long as it maintains above 133 it may be sold only on smart rise as Stop loss level is far away at 142.  On the other hand, if it goes below 131too, short positions can be created with 135 as stop loss for a possible target of 125 and below. 

Natural Gas :: (227.30 ) Natural Gas traded between 234.6 and 218.60 and is in consolidation mode.  Neutral range is 233 and 222. There is strong support at 215 and in case it continuously trades above 235, bullishness would once again return.

Silver :: (49709 and 22.64 USD) It traded between 50330 and 48255 on MCX . For the next week, it is neutral between 49600 and 48500. As it is trading above the higher end of neutral zone, it can be considered bullish for short term and would reverse only on a close below the lower end ie., 48500.

Zinc :: (118.10) Zinc traded  between 119.30 and 116.55  during  last week  and is in  general bearishness and pullback mode  with strong resistance at 124.50. For the next week, neutral range is 118.25 and 116.50 While it is bearish, a reasonable pullback can be expected if it continuously trades above 118.

Commodity price movement is influenced by USD INR movement.

Commodity Trading is highly risky and strict stop loss is to be followed.

Weekly Astro Guide for Stocks and Commodities (21/10/2013 to 25/10/2013)

Mercury Retrograde… Market ?   … !!

Astro Technical Guide  and
General outlook for the week (21.10.2013 to 25.10.2013) ::

Planetary Position ::  During the current week Moon would be
transiting  from Krittika in Aries  to Punarvasu in Gemini.    Mercury ,transits in Visakha constellation in Libra and would get into retrograde motion from 21^st evening for about 3 weeks.  Mercury, a planet of Trade and Commerce, communication, when retrograde characterizes a dull, two way movement market, undependable , misunderstandable communication etc., Hence traders are advised to be cautious and quickly book profits as they can evaporate fast.  Mars  transits in  Leo in Makha   constellation . Saturn continues in Libra in  Swathi constellation in   Pisces navamsa.  Jupiter transits in Gemini in Punarvasu  in Taurus Navamsa.  Venus transits in in Jyeshta constellation  in Scorpio  sign.  Mars’ continues in  friendly Leo. Astro range for the current month is 6200 and 6035 and Nifty would be bullish above 6200 and bearish below 6035 and would be neutral in between these levels for the next Three weeks.

Nifty Outlook for Next Week :: 21.10.2013 to 25.10.2013 ( Close to Resistance  / Caution at Higher Levels  )…  

 NIFTY :: 6189 (+93)  

Nifty gained about 1.5% and has completed Three weeks of Gain and the entire weekly gain coming on Friday. Temporary solution to US crisis enabled world markets to heave a sigh of relief. However, market is once again close to strong resistance level of 52 week high and also within striking range of life time high which could act as strong hurdles. However, these hurdles would be cleared sooner than later but it is doubtful whether it would happen this time or not?  Positive factor for this time is Diwali, which is only Two weeks away. Whether life time is achieved  in this attempt or not, market has clearly become a case of “Buy on Decline”. Nifty has been trading in a range of 4600 to 6300 for more than 4 years and is due for a  powerful breakout sooner than later.  Q2 results season would influence scripwise movements. Our markets are exhibiting  vibrancy in line with world markets due to positive fund flows  and is ahead of the economy / fundamentals and are likely to perform as it is factoring in a performing Government in next elections. Certain underperforming sectors such as Financials, Capital Goods and Infrastructure need to do well if the market and economy is to really take off. All eyes are on forth coming State Elections which could be viewed as a  prelude for the forthcoming Big fight. Stock market discounts future in advance and is ahead of economy and fundamentals and bullish sign in markets presupposes improving fundamentals.  Nifty has been making higher bottoms and can be expected to breakout and make higher tops. “Buy on Decline” may be followed for Medium / long term. Traders should be ever vigilant to track short term movements and presently, a close below 6025 would weaken the short term sentiment.  Nifty is  above 200  DMA  and 50 DMA and the only hitch is 50DMa being below 200DMA. While short term trend is  bullish but close to strong resistance , it would weaken only on a close below 6025.

For the coming week, Nifty spot is expected to face resistance at
6265,  6345, 6425 and find support at 6110, 6030, 5955.

Nifty presently in bullish zone for short term would become bearish on a close below 6025.

Advice for Traders :: While Nifty is in short term uptrend, it is likely to face strong resistance and fresh long positions may be avoided in general and existing long positions may be protect with tight stop loss. In case it appears becoming weak, a “Short straddle” strategy may be considered.

WD Gann’s
natural numbers which would act as natural support and resistance are
, : 5891, 5968, 6046, 6124, 6202 ,6281, 6361,6441  during the week.

Further , Weekly Open level is very important for the entire week.
Short positions may be avoided as long as it maintains / closes above
Weekly open and vice versa

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MCX Commodities :: 21/10//13 to 25/10//13 … 

Copper :: (448.80)  Copper traded  between 460 and 445 last week and appears to be in consolidation zone. Neutral range for the next week is 456 and 447 and would become bullish on a firm close above 456.

Crude Oil  :: (6192) Crude traded between 6348 and 6120 last week .  For the next week, it would be neutral between 6350 and 6175 and bullish trend would return only on a decisive close above 6350.  In international market, it closed around 101 and a strong support exists around 97 while a strong resistance too exists at 104.25 and is generally bearish in $ terms.

Gold :: (29480) Gold traded   between 29885 and 28350 on MCX and between 1329 and 1251 $ in international market. After breaching crucial support level in the previous week, it is in pullback mode.  Neutral zone for the current week is 29400 and 28600 on MCX. As long as it holds above 29400, pullback can be expected to continue. In international market too, it is in pullback mode with strong resistance at 1375$ and if the bearishness is to continue it may not go even nearer to that level.

Lead :: (132.20) Lead traded  between 133 and 127.40 last week and is in pullback mode. It would be in neutral zone between 132 and 128.50. While it is bearish in general, further pullback can be expected as long as it maintains above 131 it should be sold only on smart rise as Stop loss level is far away at 142 

Natural Gas :: (231 ) Natural Gas traded between 239 and 226 and is in short term bullish trend.  Neutral range is 235 and 228. If it continuously trades above 239, even a level of 255 to 260 can be  expected.

Silver :: (48195 and 21.91 USD) It traded between 48853 and 45951 on MCX . For the next week, it is neutral between 48500 and 47000 and would turn marginally bullish if it trades continuously above 48500. While it is bearish, a reasonable pullback can be expected. 

Zinc :: (116.55) Zinc traded  between 118 and 115.40  during  last week  and is in  bearishness with strong resistance at 124.50. For the next week, neutral range is 117.5 and 115.50 While it is bearish, a reasonable pullback can be expected if it continuously trades above 118.

Commodity price movement is influenced by USD INR movement.

Commodity Trading is highly risky and strict stop loss is to be followed.

Weekly Astro Guide for Stocks and Comodities 14/10/2013

Further Bullishness but Caution at Higher Levels  / Monthly  Astro Range between Tuesday and Friday… !!

Astro Technical Guide  and
General outlook for the week (14.10.2013 to 18.10.2013) ::

 Planetary Position ::  During the current week Moon would be
transiting  from Dhanishta in Capricorn  to Revathi in Pisces.    Mercury ,transits in Visakha constellation in Libra.  Mars  transits in  Leo in Makha   constellation . Saturn continues in Libra in  Swathi constellation in   Pisces navamsa.  Jupiter transits in Gemini in Punarvasu  in Taurus Navamsa.  Venus transits in in Anuradha and Jyeshta constellations  in Scorpio  sign.  Mars’ continues in  friendly Leo. Mercury would be slowing down ahead of retrograde motion later this month. Hence, market too would slow down over next Two to Three weeks  and caution is advised at higher levels as Dual movements are also due later, Further, Range from Tuesday to Friday can be considered as a reference range for the next Three weeks and Nifty would be bullish above the High level and Bearish below the Low level.

Nifty Outlook for Next Week :: 14.10.2013 to 18.10.2013 ( Further Upmove   )…  

 NIFTY :: 6096 (+189)  

Nifty gained about 3% and has completed Second weekly gain. Technically, some more upside is possible and last week’s high could be taken out before it retraces again. Q2 Results season has begun and Infy has delivered once again. Nifty has been trading in a range of 4600 to 6200 for more than 4 years and is due for a  powerful breakout sooner than later.  Q2 results season would influence scripwise movements. Bank stocks have been laggards and might perform better as more freedom for risk management is likely under new RBI Governor’s regime. If Bank stocks contribute positively to the broader index, a smart rise can be expected. IT, Auto, Pharma indices are doing well and as earnings. Main concern now is political developments and in case new Government can provide the much needed leadership,  our economy should do well. Infra, Power  and Capital Goods  sectors should be taken care. Stock market discounts future in advance and is ahead of economy and bullish sign in markets presupposes bullish economy. Nifty has been making higher bottoms and can be expected to breakout and make higher tops. “Buy on Decline” may be followed for Medium / long term. Traders should be ever vigilant to track short term movements and presently, a close below 5950 would weaken the short term sentiment.  Global cues also play an important role this week as US Debt Ceiling(which is expected to resolve favourably, considering the Dow movement). Nifty is  above 200  DMA  and 50 DMA and the only hitch is 50DMa being below 200DMA. As we draw close to State Elections (which can be considered as a referendum for Lok Sabha polls), political scenario also would be hotting up and ofcouse, in our country, it is all the more important as Politics influence Economics. While short term trend appears bullish, it would weaken only on a close below 5950. Technically, one more positive weekly close can be expected  after which caution is advised.

For the coming week, Nifty spot is expected to face resistance at
6175,  6255, 6330 and find support at 6020, 5940, 5865.

Nifty presently in bullish zone for short term would become bearish on a close below 5950.

Advice for Traders :: Nifty is in uptrend and further upside is seen in this truncated week. Global cues and Q2 results play an important role. For the week Buy on Decline with 5950 as stop and reverse (on close basis).

WD Gann’s
natural numbers which would act as natural support and resistance are
, : 5739: , 5815, 5891, 5968, 6046, 6124, 6202 ,6255, 6330  during the week.

Further , Weekly Open level is very important for the entire week.
Short positions may be avoided as long as it maintains / closes above
Weekly open and vice versa

MCX Commodities :: 14/10//13 to 18/10//13 … 

Copper :: (445.75)  Copper traded  between 459 and 440 last week and has made a lower bottom once again on weekly basis.  While the chart pattern suggests bullishness, buying may be made only a firm close above 465. For the next week neutral range is 464 and 454. It would be bearish below 454 with a strong support around 430.

Crude Oil  :: (6207) Crude traded between 6476 and 6174 last week .  For the next week, it would be neutral between 6500 and 6350 and bullish trend would return only on a decisive close above 6500.  In international market, it closed around 102 and a strong support exists around 97. However, it would become bullish only on a close above 106.  

Gold :: (28365 ) Gold traded   between 29750 and 28321 on MCX and between 1331 and 1260 $ in international market. During the week, it breached major support levels both in domestic and international markets and has become a case of “Sell on Rise” from “Buy on Decline”. For the next week, it would be in neutral range between 30400 and 29600 and hence in oversold zone and due for a pullback which may be used for selling. However, there is strong temporary support around 27500 in domestic market  and around previous low of 1200$ in international market.

Lead :: (127.90 Lead traded in a narrow range  between 129.25 and 127 last week. It would be in neutral zone between 129.25 and 127. While it is bearish, it should be sold only on smart rise as Stop loss level is far away at 142.  Pullback can be expected if it maintains above 129.50.

Natural Gas :: (2 31 ) Natural Gas traded between 234 and 217 with higher tops and higher bottom on weekly basis. Neutral range is 227 and 218 and is in short term bullishness aslong as it maintains above 227.

Silver :: (46891 and 21.26 USD) It traded between 50123 and 46700 on MCX and between 22.52 and 20.95 $ in international market. For the next week, it is neutral between 49500 and 48100 and would turn marginally bullish above 49500. However, in international market,there is strong su[[prt at 20.55$.

Zinc :: (115.60) Zinc traded in a narrow range . between 117 and 113.90  during  last week  and is in  bearishness with strong resistance at 124.50. For the next week, neutral range is 117 and 115. “Sell on smart Rise” (possible if it continuously trades above 117) with strict stop loss at 124.50. Alternatively, mild buying can be attempted above 117 with 115 as stop loss for a reasonable pullback.

Commodity price movement is influenced by USD INR movement.

Commodity Trading is highly risky and strict stop loss is to be followed.

Bullish Bias above 5925  ..!!!

Astro Technical Guide  and
General outlook for the week (04.10.2013 to 11.10.2013) ::

 Planetary Position ::  During the current week Moon would be
transiting  from Swathi in Libra to Poorvashadha in Sagittarius    Mercury ,transits in Swathi constellation in Libra.  Mars  transits in  Leo in Makha   constellation . Saturn continues in Libra in  Swathi constellation and  Aquarius navamsa.  Jupiter transits in Gemini in Punarvasu  in Taurus Navamsa.  Venus transits in in Anuradha  in Scorpio  sign.  Mars’ completed its transits in Cancer and enters friendly Leo. Sun is in waning square to Uranus and Pluto  but in applying square to Jupiter and could affect PSU Banks particularly in Second half of the week Outer planets continue to remain under hard aspect .  Considering astro technical setup, market   would undergo highly volatile  movements with bearish bias due to hard aspects of Sun with outer planets till October Second  week.

Nifty Outlook for Next Week :: 04.10.2013 to 11.10.2013 ( Nifty Bullish above 5925  )…  

 NIFTY :: 5907 (+74)  

After a week’s respite, Nifty closed in the green and is at crucial juncture as close above 5925 would make it bullish once again with a possibility of a new high. Technically, Bearish Head and Shoulder pattern  visible after a close below 5800 would get negated on a close above 5925. Q2 results season would be commencing and market movement would be driven by results of major companies. Estimates do not show all round growth and hence scrip specific movements can be expected. While US Shut down did not have any impact on Indian stocks, its decision of October 17 over raising of debt ceiling would be quit crucial. Till then, uncertainty could prevail  Nifty is once again above 200  DMA  and until it moves below 50 DMA, it can not be considered bearish. Golden Cross of 50DMA above 200 DMA only would confirm the Meidum / Long term bullishness. As we draw close to State Elections (which can be considered as a referendum for Lok Sabha polls), political scenario also would be hotting up and ofcouse, in our country, it is all the more important as Politics influence Economics. While short term trend appears bullish, it would gain strength on a close above 5925 while a close below 5800 would put it in jeopardy. Technically, a negative weekly close would negate short term trend while a positive close would take it up further. Hence Buy on Decline may be followed with 5800 as Stop and Reverse.

Nifty would become stro9ng  on a decisive close above 5925 (with target of a new high).

For the coming week, Nifty spot is expected to face resistance at
5985,  6060, 6140 and find support at 5830, 5755, 5680.

Nifty presently in bullish zone for short term would become further strong on a close above 5925 while a close below 5800 would make it bearish for short term.

Advice for Traders :: Nifty seems to be on its uptrend once again which would be confirmed on a close above 5925. Further long  positions can be considered when it closes above 5925 with a stop loss of 5800 (on close basis). In case it maintains above Weekly Open, uptrend can extend till the week ending 18^th.

WD Gann’s
natural numbers which would act as natural support and resistance are
, 5603,: 5739: , 5815, 5891, 5968, 6046, 6124, 6202   during the week.

Further , Weekly Open level is very important for the entire week.
Short positions may be avoided as long as it maintains / closes above
Weekly open and vice versa

MCX Commodities :: 07/10//13 to 11/10//13 … 

Copper :: (454)  Copper traded  between 471 and 448 last week and has made a lower bottom once again and failed to move up. While the chart pattern suggests bullishness, buying may be made only a firm close above 470. For the next week neutral range is 466 and 457. It would be bearish below 457.

Crude Oil  :: (6386) Crude traded in a narrow range last week between 6477 and 6341 and appears trying to find support and prepare a base for going up.  For the next week, it would be neutral between 6550 and 6375 and bullish trend would return only on a decisive close above 6550. 

Gold :: (29704 ) Gold traded   between 30840 and 29351 on MCX and between 1354 and 1277 $ in international market. Neutral range for next week is 29600 and 30500 and short trm bullishness would return on a close 30500 and it would be prudent buy above 30850. Present bullish chart pattern would negated on a close below 29000 in domestic market and below 1265$ in international market.

Lead :: (126) Lead traded between 131.60 and 125.35 last week and it continues to be bearish. However, it should be sold only on smart rise as logical stop loss is far away at 142. For the week, expect retracement for the fall only if  maintains above 131 and it would be neutral between 127 and 131.

Natural Gas :: (216.10 ) Natural Gas traded between 230.5 and 215.70 and is in short term bearishness. Neutral range is 220 and 228  and there is strong resistance at 239. Sell on rise with 239 as stop loss. In international market too, there is strong resistance at $3.90.(Present price $3.51)

Silver :: (48187 and 21.75 USD) It traded between 49899 and 46866 on MCX and between 22.11 and 20.63 $ in international market. In international market it is weak while it is not so in domestic market due to USD INR parity. For the next week, it is neutral between 49400 and 48500 and would turn marginally bullish above 49500. However, in international market, if it trades below 20 , it can be expected to make a new low.

Zinc :: (114.30) Zinc traded between 119.90 and 113.55  during  last week  and failed on its upmove and entered bearishness with strong resistance at 124.50. For the next week, neutral range is 118 and 115. “Sell on smart Rise” (possible if it continuously trades above 118) with strict stop loss at 124.50.

Commodity price movement is influenced by USD INR movement.

Commodity Trading is highly risky and strict stop loss is to be followed.