Weekly Astro Technical Guide (23/3/15 to 27/3/15) and Commodity Watch

Buy on Deep Decline …..  …!!!

 Planetary Position ::  During the current week Moon would be transiting  from Bharani in Aries to Aardra in Gemini.

Sun transits in  Uttarabhadra   in Pisces.

Mercury   transits  in       Poorvabhadra in  Aquarius.

Venus transits in  Aswini and Bharani  in Aries.

Mars transits in  Revathi in Pisces and Aswini in Aries.

Saturn transits in   Anuradha constellation in Scropio sign and in Libra Navamsa and remains in  retrograde motion from 14^th March to 2^nd August, 2015.

Jupiter , in retrograde motion from December 9^th   to 8^th April 2015, transits in  Cancer in Aslesha constellation in    Sagittarius  Navamsa  .

Rahu and Ketu continue their transit in Virgo and Pisces respectively.

 Nifty’s range from last week Wednesday to Friday (18^th March to 20^th March) was 8788 to 8553 and could be considered as the reference range for the next Three weeks and Nifty can be considered Bullish above the high (i.e., 8788) and bearish below the low of this range(ie., 8553).and neutral in between the range. Below the range, first support / target is 8300 and above the high , first resistance / target is 9025.

Nifty Outlook for Next Week :: (23.03.2015 to 27.03. 2015) …  

 NIFTY :: 8571 (-77) (Scrip wise Movements   …)

Nifty traded in a choppy manner and fell less than 1% due to steep fall from higher levels in Second half of the week. Despite positive global cues, market corrected and market is being sold into whenever market opened higher due to positive news. This indicates profit booking at higher levels as market appears to have  run up more than what the fundamentals suggest. While market always discounts future in advance, it appears to be in consolidation mode  before another uptrend. Insurance Bill and coal/ Mines bills have been passed and the crucial Land Bill, though diluted , While the fall in Nifty is less than 1%, sentiment has turned weaker and most stocks of PSU Banks , metals, infra and realty are quite weak. Stringent bill on Black money etc., appears to have dampened the sentiment in realty , infra sectors.

Coal allocation would spur economic growth in fields such as Mining and power and would contribute to the GDP growth. Reform measures taken by the Government would go a long way in  improving the macro fundamentals. GST from next year would simplify tax regime and ensure ease of doing business. While Medium / long term outlook appears bright, market appears fully priced from  short term point of view and most of the short term triggers are fully priced in.

20DMA, 50DMA, 100DMA and 200 DMA are placed at about 8770, 8705, 8525 and 8140 respectively and would

act as supports / resistances. Nifty is close to 100DMA and could take support around that level.

Nifty continues to be above 200 DMA and 50 DMA too is above 200 DMA (Golden Cross) suggesting that the

long term bullish trend is intact.   Nifty is quoting at a PE of more than  23 which is more than 20% above the long term PE multiple.  Nifty EPS fell after Q3 results and the EPS fell from 391 to 373  due to change in weightage of Nifty constituents. Nifty PE, though not in bubble zone, is indicating caution and earnings need to improve substantially over the next Two quarters  failing which a reversion to mean with a serious correction can not be ruled out.

Strong long term support would be around 8150

level and Medium term support is 8500. 

Technical Levels ::

For the coming week, Nifty spot is expected to be Bullish above 8600 with

resistance at 8690, 8790, 8835, 8925 and is expected to Bearish below 8545 with Supports at 8450, 8365 8305, 8225.

Nifty could not hold at higher levels / pull back levels and fell sharply on Thurs /  Friday and  being last week of Derivative expiry  is close to strong support level of about 8500 and can be expected to take support  around 8450 / 8500.

Breakout level for the week is 8850,  and break down level for the week is 8495. 

Advice for Traders ::

Nifty witnessed choppy movements and it could not sustain at higher levels. In view of the last week of F&O expiry, scrip specific movements are most likely. Weak stocks could become further weak and strong scrips could become further strong.  If scrips get into oversold zone by Thursday they could rebound within couple of days. Further, 100 DMA could offer strong support to Nifty and it could give a reasonable pullback. 

 Weekly Open level is very important for the entire week.
Short positions may be avoided as long as it maintains / closes above
Weekly open and vice versa

 MCX COMMODITIES   :: (23/3/15 TO 27/3/15)

Copper ::  (382)  Copper traded between 385 and 357 last week.  It is in short term uptrend and become bearish only if it closes below 360.

Crude Oil  ::  (2949) During the week , it traded between 2983 and 2641. In view of the new April series in MCX,  roll over premium of about 5% was witnessed . However, it would become bullish only if it closes above 3025.

$45.72 :: In $ terms, it would be weak below 48.

Gold :: (26182)  It traded between 26238 and 25500. It is in pullback mode and is neutral between 26000 and 25500 and could be considered strong as long as it holds above 26000. In $ terms , it had traded between 1187 and 1141 last week and closed nearer to the high  at 1185 and would get into neutral  zone only when it closes and trades below 1170.

Lead :: 111 ::   It appears to have bottomed out .  Above 111, it has potential to go upto 117- There is a  strong resistance around 120.

Natural Gas ::  175 :: It traded between 184 and 169. It is in pullback mode and becomes weak when it continuously trades below 169.

Silver ::  37789 ::  It traded between 37800 and 35120. It is pllback mode having  gone up strongly towards last weekend. It becomes  weak only if it trades below 36500.

Zinc ::  128 ::  It is in zigzag mode with resistance around 130 and support around 125.