MAY(hem) in the offing !!!

Astro Technical Guide for Monday, 3rd May, 2010 and general outlook for the week::

Astro Info:: Moon transits in Poorvashadha ruled by Venus . Persons born in Mrigasira, Chitta and Dhanishta constellations and in Cancer and Scorpio zodiac signs are advised to be alert in their dealings .

Astro Technical Position for the week :: Market closed with marginal bearishness last week amidst volatility. Following global cues, lower opening on Monday is a foregone conclusion and general feeling that May month offers good volatility and considerable bearishness may come true this year atleast in the first half of the month, considering planetary configuration. Jupiter’s entry into sidereal Pisces, its own sign, has already boosted sentiment in Banking stocks. Technically, Nifty is set to become further bearish with close below 5240 and more pronounced bearishness below 5180. With Mercury retrograde motion still continuing, miscommunications would continue. Market traded in a narrow range in April and clear breakout / trend can be expected in May . Medium term investors can wait for the trend to emerge. However, long term investors can utilize any significant fall as an opportunity for buying.

Technical Levels for the week :: Nifty is strong above 5290 with resistance around 5380, 5450 and weak below 5235 with supports around 5150, 5080 for the week.
Based on present market movement, Nifty fut would be in bullish zone above 5290 and in bearish zone below 5250 during the week . WD Gann’s natural numbers which would act as natural support and resistance are :: 5077, 5149, 5221, 5293, 5366, 5440 during the week.

Sensitive / Trend change Timings for the day :: 9.45am; 12.50pm;

Intraday Trend for 03.05.10:: On the basis of planetary position and also global cues, Market is expected to open lower and may remain generally steady thereafter to become subdued /weak from 1.00pm .
PSU stocks are expected to be better while FMCG and entertainment stocks may remain subdued.

Astro Technical Trading Strategy for the day :: Incase market opens sharply lower, over night short positions , if any, may be covered . After 1.30pm, if Nifty futures trades below Average Traded Price, short positions can be created with a stop loss of about 10 points above Average Price and such positions may be closed by end of the day. Generally, market has turned bearish and any rise may be utilized to liquidate long / create short positions and overnight long positions in Nifty is against the general trend and need to be hedged. However, Bank stocks are generally bearish while Cement, Sugar, Telecom stocks are generally bearish and scrip specific approach is better for traders.

Open level is important below which only short positions may be taken and vice versa. Stop loss is a must for intraday trading.

Technical Levels for the day:: Nifty Futures would be bullish above 5275 with resistance around 5310, 5335 and bearish below 5255 with supports around 5220, 5195 and 5165. for the day.

Based on present market position, Nifty fut would be in bullish zone above 5275 and in Bearish zone blow 5260 for Monday.

Stop loss for Nifty positional trade (short) is 5300.

SPECIAL UPDATE ON MAY IN EVEN YEARS ::


Usually, month of May is associated with considerable volatility and considerable fall / rise is also noticed. Normally, investors and traders are very much concerned about the fall of market whenever May month comes. But this is not always correct. Net Average rise of sensex during the last 18 years is a mere 0.19% in May, which does not lead to any conclusion. However, a different kind of analysis leads us to a different and interesting conclusion.
If we carefully observe the pattern of rise and fall each year, it is rising in Odd years and falling in Even years , as tabulated below and the extent of rise in odd years is 8.90% and fall in Even year is -8.50%. Average Volatility (difference between high index and low index) during May is about 14%.



Even May Index Inc/Dec % Odd May Index Inc/Dec %
year Year
1992 3006 -881 -22.67 1993 2192 70 3.30
1994 3829 83 2.22 1995 3351 218 6.96
1996 3725 -101 -2.64 1997 3755 -86 -2.24
1998 3686 -321 -8.01 1999 3964 638 19.18
2000 4434 -224 -4.81 2001 3632 113 3.21
2002 3126 -212 -6.35 2003 3181 221 7.47
2004 4760 -895 -15.83 2005 6715 561 9.12
2006 10399 -1644 -13.65 2007 14544 672 4.84
2008 16416 -871 -5.04 2009 14625 3222 28.26
2010 ?? ? ??
Average -8.53 8.90

Out of the 9 even years, market had fallen in 8 out of 9 years and also out of 9 Odd years, market had risen in 8 out of 9 years.

While the above analysis only has a statistical analysis, astrological reasons can be attributed keeping Sun, Venus , Mercury and Jupiter positions in view.

As 2010 is an even year, which recorded an average fall of -8.5% over the last 18 years, can we expect a similar fall this year also ? In addition to the above statistical analysis, astrological analysis also point towards fall upto about 20th of May. Technically, too market is making a lower tops and Nifty fall below 5160 would confirm weakness. If the market records the average fall of 8%, Nifty may witness fall of more than 400 points and may revisit 4800s. However, market movement depends on several factors such as fundamentals of economy, technical set up of market, Funds flow into market, investor sentiment, geo political factors etc., Time only can tell which way market would move !!!





IF resistance levels are achieved in the forenoon session, buying may be avoided at higher levels and risky traders can consider short positon for a pull back to Bullish trigger level. IF Support levels are achieved in the forenoon session, selling may be avoided at lower levels and risky traders can consider buying for a pull back upto Bearish trigger level / other support levels.

Note ::Intraday trend given above is relative and based purely on the basis of planetary positions and aspects and needs to be understood and applied depending on the market movement. Technical portion and astrological portion given above should be considered together and applied for taking proper trading decisions.

Disclaimer :: Intraday trading is risky and Astro guidance is to be used as an additional tool in addition to technicals and adapted depending on intraday movements. Creator only knows what is going to happen and astrologer can only indicate what is likely to happen . Whether Stock market is suitable or not is determined based on Individual natal chart and that would be helpful to determine one’s favourable / unfavourable period .

Trade only with stop loss..

Happy Trading..
Dr B Amaranatha Sastry