Buy on Deep Decline …..
…!!!
Planetary
Position :: During the current week Moon would be
transiting from Bharani in Aries to Aardra in Gemini.
Sun transits in Uttarabhadra
in Pisces.
Mercury
transits in Poorvabhadra in Aquarius.
Venus transits in
Aswini and Bharani in Aries.
Mars transits in
Revathi in Pisces and Aswini in Aries.
Saturn transits in
Anuradha constellation in Scropio sign and in Libra Navamsa and remains
in retrograde motion from 14th March to 2nd August, 2015.
Jupiter , in
retrograde motion from December 9th to 8th April
2015, transits in Cancer in Aslesha constellation in Sagittarius
Navamsa .
Rahu and Ketu continue
their transit in Virgo and Pisces respectively.
Nifty’s range
from last week Wednesday to Friday (18th March to 20th March) was 8788 to 8553 and could be
considered as the reference range for the next Three weeks and Nifty can be
considered Bullish above the high (i.e., 8788) and bearish below the low of
this range(ie., 8553).and neutral in between the range. Below the range, first
support / target is 8300 and above the high , first resistance / target is
9025.
Nifty Outlook for Next
Week :: (23.03.2015 to 27.03. 2015) …
NIFTY :: 8571 (-77) (Scrip
wise Movements …)
Nifty traded in a choppy manner and fell less
than 1% due to steep fall from higher levels in Second half of the week.
Despite positive global cues, market corrected and market is being sold into
whenever market opened higher due to positive news. This indicates profit
booking at higher levels as market appears to have run up more than what the fundamentals
suggest. While market always discounts future in advance, it appears to be in
consolidation mode before another
uptrend. Insurance Bill and coal/ Mines bills have been passed and the crucial
Land Bill, though diluted , While the fall in Nifty is less than 1%, sentiment
has turned weaker and most stocks of PSU Banks , metals, infra and realty are
quite weak. Stringent bill on Black money etc., appears to have dampened the
sentiment in realty , infra sectors.
Coal allocation would spur economic growth in
fields such as Mining and power and would contribute to the GDP growth. Reform
measures taken by the Government would go a long way in improving the
macro fundamentals. GST from next year would simplify tax regime and ensure
ease of doing business. While Medium / long term outlook appears bright, market
appears fully priced from short term point of view and most of the short
term triggers are fully priced in.
20DMA, 50DMA, 100DMA and 200 DMA are placed at
about 8770, 8705, 8525 and 8140 respectively and would
act as supports / resistances. Nifty is close
to 100DMA and could take support around that level.
Nifty continues to be above 200 DMA and 50 DMA
too is above 200 DMA (Golden Cross) suggesting that the
long term bullish trend is intact. Nifty is quoting at a PE of more
than 23 which is more than 20% above the long term PE
multiple. Nifty EPS fell after Q3 results and the EPS fell from 391 to
373 due to change in weightage of Nifty constituents. Nifty PE, though
not in bubble zone, is indicating caution and earnings need to improve
substantially over the next Two quarters failing which a reversion to
mean with a serious correction can not be ruled out.
Strong long term support would be around 8150
level and Medium term support is 8500.
Technical Levels ::
For the coming week, Nifty spot is expected to
be Bullish above 8600 with
resistance at 8690, 8790, 8835, 8925 and is
expected to Bearish below 8545 with Supports at 8450, 8365 8305, 8225.
Nifty could not hold at higher levels / pull back levels and fell sharply on
Thurs / Friday and being last week of Derivative expiry is close to strong support level of about 8500
and can be expected to take support around 8450 / 8500.
Breakout level for the
week is 8850, and break down level for the week is 8495.
Advice for Traders ::
Nifty witnessed choppy
movements and it could not sustain at higher levels. In view of the last week
of F&O expiry, scrip specific movements are most likely. Weak stocks could
become further weak and strong scrips could become further strong. If scrips get into oversold zone by Thursday
they could rebound within couple of days. Further, 100 DMA could offer strong
support to Nifty and it could give a reasonable pullback.
Weekly Open
level is very important for the entire week.
Short positions may be avoided as long as it maintains / closes above
Weekly open and vice versa
MCX COMMODITIES :: (23/3/15 TO 27/3/15)
Copper :: (382) Copper traded between 385 and 357 last week. It is in short term uptrend and become bearish
only if it closes below 360.
Crude Oil :: (2949) During the week , it traded between 2983
and 2641. In view of the new April series in MCX, roll over premium of about 5% was witnessed .
However, it would become bullish only if it closes above 3025.
$45.72 :: In $ terms, it would be weak below 48.
Gold :: (26182) It
traded between 26238 and 25500. It is in pullback mode and is neutral between
26000 and 25500 and could be considered strong as long as it holds above 26000.
In $ terms , it had traded between 1187 and 1141 last week and closed nearer to
the high at 1185 and would get into
neutral zone only when it closes and
trades below 1170.
Lead :: 111 :: It appears to have bottomed out . Above 111, it has potential to go upto 117- There
is a strong resistance around 120.
Natural Gas :: 175 ::
It traded between 184 and 169. It is in pullback mode and becomes weak when it
continuously trades below 169.
Silver :: 37789
:: It traded between 37800 and 35120. It
is pllback mode having gone up strongly
towards last weekend. It becomes weak
only if it trades below 36500.
Zinc :: 128 :: It is in zigzag mode with resistance around
130 and support around 125.