Samvat Forecast and Weekly Forecast

SAMVAT FORECAST, 2070 :: 2013-14  ::  GENERAL BULLISH SENTIMENT

Samvat  2069 has ended the year at the highest level  at 6307 (up from 5684 last year) recording  a rise of more than 10%. However, markets have been muted for last  Four  years  as Nifty is yet to clear  2008 / 2010 peak. (However, it is on the verge of clearing the previous high and sensex had just cleared the previous high).  Current year’s rather unimpressive performance is mainly due to  Domestic   factors  of policy paralysis, inflation etc, Recent rise has been maily due to huge FII inflows. However, earnings have been going up  steadily. For instance Nifty EPS has steadily gone up from about 225 at the beginning of 2010 to about 345 presently. While earnings have been going up, broader indices have been languishing  in a narrow range  for the last Four  years. Considering the above, a reasonable upside is  due from fundamental and technical point of view.  Among sectoral indices, IT index outperformed all other indices by going up by more than 45% (due to rupee depreciation) followed by FMCG. Realty index was the worst performer. Next year depends on the new Government at the centre. If a Government with clear majority takes seat, it would be viewed positively as against a Third front coalition Government, Now, let us analyse what is in store astrologically, for the next Year.

Let us see how the markets can be in the Next Samvat year 2070. On the
basis of Planetary position at the time of Diwali (New year),  and the
transiting planets  during the year the following indications are available
astrologically.

Samvat Year rises in Aries  Lagna (03.11.2013 at 6.20 pm ) with
Ketu  placed in Lagna and  with Jupiter in 3^rd Gemini and Saturn, Rahu, Retro Mercury  and luminaries placed in Libra, the Seventh house. Mars is placed in Leo.  However,  Mercury, the lord for Trade and Commerce are in retrograde position and Dhana Karaka Jupiter is stationary ahead of retrograde motion.  Astrologically, placement of luminaries between malefic Saturn and Rahu and retrograde position of Mercury does not augur well.  However, Jupiter’s aspect on Libra is a saving grace.

 Important dates / period to watch in this Year are 14.11.2013; 1.1..2014; 26.02.2014; 06.03.2014; 17.04.2014; 08.05.2014; 26.05.2014; 19.06.2014; 06.07.2014; 25.07.2014; 21.8.2014; 11.09.2014;  ; Jupiter transit into  exalted Cancer from June 2014 might improve the fortunes of Housing, realestate and infra companies.  May and August 2014 can be expected to be volatile months during the year.

   . Technically, Nifty is expected to face
resistance around 6465, 6630, 6790, 6960, 7125, 7300,7650,8000 and find support around  6150, 5995, 5840, 5685, 5535, 5390.5100,4820   during the year.

While  global cues, FII inflows and Government  policies including Monetary policy of the central bank , Business environment, Currency fluctuation  are  expected to play pivotal role in shaping the economy and in turn stock market,  forthcoming year will be mainly influenced by Elections, new Government and its policies.  Considering, astro, technical and fundamental factors Nifty can be expected to trade between 7500 – 8000 on the upper side and 5500 – 5000 on the downside, barring unforeseen extraneous circumstances.  Hence, Buying on any reasonable decline is suggested.

 =================================================================================

Caution at Higher Levels  But Buy on Deep Decline… !!

Astro Technical Guide  and
General outlook for the week (05.11.2013 to 08.11.2013) ::

 Planetary Position ::  During the current week Moon would be
transiting  from Anuradha  in Scorpio    to Poorvashadha in Sagittarius.  Sun transits in Swathi and Visakha constellation in Libra and is sandwiched between Rahu and Saturn.    Mercury ,transits in Swathi constellation in Libra in retrograde motion  from 21^st October to 11^th November. Mercury, a planet of Trade and Commerce, communication, when retrograde characterizes a dull, two way movement market, undependable , misunderstandable communication etc.,.   Mars  transits in  Leo in Pubba   constellation in slower motion . Saturn continues in Libra in  Swathi constellation in   Pisces and Aries navamsa.  Jupiter transits in Gemini in Punarvasu  in Taurus Navamsa. Further, during the week, Jupiter would be moving in retro motion from 7^th November to 6^th March, 2014.  Venus transits in in Moola  constellation Sagittarius sign.Deepwali  New moon on 3^rd November wherein   the luminaries are sandwiched between Two malefic planets Saturn and Rahu and presages a tough time ahead. Sun Saturn conjunction on November 6 also may not augur well for market.  New Samvat year would be commencing from Diwali and Bullishness can be expected on a yearly basis.

Nifty Outlook for Next Week :: 05.11.2013 to 08.11.2013 (Buy on Deep Decline for Medium Term..  Caution at Higher Levels for Short Term )…  

 NIFTY :: 6307 (+162)  

After a week’s respite, Nifty bounced back with renewed vigour  and closed above 6300 mark with a gain of more than 2.50%. FII inflows coupled with better than expected  Q2 results helped indices gain smartly. A process of bottoming is being seen among several economic indicators and the worst appears behind us and as stock market tends to discount future in advance, further uptrend too can be expected over medium term and it is a case of clear “Buy on Decline”. Beaten down sectors could rebound faster than already performing sectors. Same thing happened with Public sector banks last week..In view of  normal monsoon and preelction year, rural economy can be expected to do well which would translate to  better disposable incomes and higher growth. Sensex has already crossed all time high and Nifty is about to cross and further rise is possible in this euphoria. However, investors may wait for retracement to take medium term positions.  Market has clearly become a case of “Buy on Decline”. Further, Nifty has been trading in a range of 4600 to 6300 for more than 4 years and is due for a  powerful breakout sooner than later. Certain underperforming sectors such as Financials, Capital Goods and Infrastructure need to do well if the market and economy is to really take off. All eyes are on forth coming State Elections which could be viewed as a  prelude for the forthcoming Big fight. Stock market discounts future in advance and is ahead of economy and fundamentals and bullish sign in markets presupposes improving fundamentals.  Nifty has been making higher bottoms and can be expected to breakout and make higher tops. “Buy on Decline” may be followed for Medium / long term. Traders should be ever vigilant to track short term movements and presently, a close below 6225 would weaken the short term sentiment.  Nifty is  above 200  DMA  and 50 DMA and the  50DMa also is crossing  200DMA and makes a clear case of “Buy on Decline” with 200 DMA as stop loss. . While short term trend is  is  bullish  and  but close to strong resistance , it would weaken only on a close below 6225.

For the coming week, Nifty spot is expected to face resistance at
6385,  6465, 6550 and find support at 6225, 6150, 6070.

Nifty , presently in short term bearishness, would cease to be bullish if it closes below 6225.

Advice for Traders :: Nifty is all set to make new life time high and gets into unchartered territory. Long positions may be maintained with Stop and Reverse below 6225 (on close basis). However, strong resistance too can be expected between 6400 and 6500 and retrace reasonably thereafter. If Nifty maintains above weekly open, short positions may best be avoided and alternatively, long positions may be continued.

WD Gann’s
natural numbers which would act as natural support and resistance are
, :  6046, 6124, 6202 ,6281, 6361,6441, 6487, 6521  during the week.

Further , Weekly Open level is very important for the entire week.
Short positions may be avoided as long as it maintains / closes above
Weekly open and vice versa

MCX Commodities :: 04/11//13 to 08/11//13 … 

Copper :: (452.50)  Copper traded  between 453 and 444 last week and appears to be in consolidation zone. Neutral range for the next week is 452 and 442 and would become bullish on a firm consecutive closes above 454.

Crude Oil  :: (5996) Crude traded in a narrow range with bearish bias between 6108 and 5930 last week .  For the next week, it would be neutral between 6125 and 5975 and bullish trend would return only on a decisive close above 6150.  In international market, it closed around 96.40 and reasonable pullback can be expected only when it closes above 98. In view of the oversold zone and expectation of a reasonable pullback, fresh shorts are not suggested. However, there is strong resistance at 104.25$ in international market and may not go above the level without making further lows.

Gold :: (29793) Gold traded   between 31164 and 29660 on MCX and between 1362 and 1318 $ in international market. It appears to have completed pullback and on its way down once again. If it closes well below 1318$ in international market, further downside upto 1250$ can be expected over a period of time. Neutral zone for the current week is 30600 and 29900 on MCX. As long as it does not go above 30600 and is preferably below 29900, further downside can be expected upto about 28000.

Lead :: (133.20) Lead traded  in a narrow range between 135.55 and 132.75 last week and is in pullback mode. It would once again get into bearish zone if it closes well below 132. It would be in neutral zone between 135 and 132. It goes below 132 short positions can be created with 135 as stop loss for a possible target of 125 and below. 

Natural Gas :: (223 ) Natural Gas traded between 228.20 and 218.70 and is in consolidation mode.  Neutral range is 227 and 220. There is strong support at 215 and in case it continuously trades above 230, bullishness would once again return.

Silver :: (48431 and 21.97 USD) It traded between 50391 and 48100 on MCX . For the next week, it is neutral between 50000 and 48900. It could not continue to be bullish and appears to have turned bearish. If it closes well below 48000, further downside can be expected. It would turn bullish only if it firmly closes above 50500..

Zinc :: (118.25) Zinc traded in a narrow range  between 119.65 and 117.60  during  last week  and is in  general bearishness and pullback mode  with strong resistance at 124.50. For the next week, neutral range is 119.25 and 117.25.  In case it closes below 117, further downside can be expected.

Commodity price movement is influenced by USD INR movement.

Commodity Trading is highly risky and strict stop loss is to be followed.