Weekly Astro Guide for Stocks and Commodities (28/10/2013 to 1/11/2013)

RBI Policy Holds the Key…  Possibility of Further Fall too … !!

Astro Technical Guide  and
General outlook for the week (28.10.2013 to 01.11.2013) ::

 Planetary Position ::  During the current week Moon would be
transiting  from Aslesha in Cancer   to Hastha in Virgo .  Sun transits in Swathi constellation in Libra and is in close orb to Rahu and would be sandwiched between Rahu and Saturn later on.   Mercury ,transits in Visakha and Swathi constellation in Libra in retrograde motion  from 21^st October to 11^th November. Mercury, a planet of Trade and Commerce, communication, when retrograde characterizes a dull, two way movement market, undependable , misunderstandable communication etc., When RBI Policy comes during this period, we can imagine how dependable that would be? Hence traders are advised to be cautious and quickly book profits as they can evaporate fast.  Mars  transits in  Leo in Pubba   constellation . Saturn continues in Libra in  Swathi constellation in   Pisces navamsa.  Jupiter transits in Gemini in Punarvasu  in Taurus Navamsa.  Venus transits in in Jyeshta and Moola constellations  in Scorpio  and Sagittarius signs. New moon would take place during weekend and  the luminaries are sandwiched between Two malefic planets Saturn and Rahu and presages a tough time ahead particularly for Government / Government agencies.  Uranus Pluto rapt square on November 1 also could contribute to bearishness / reversal. 

Nifty Outlook for Next Week :: 28.10.2013 to 01.11.2013 (RBI Policy Holds the Key…  Bearish Bias )…  

 NIFTY :: 6145 (-44)  

After three weeks of gain, Nifty retraced about 0.75% amid volatile trade in a narrow range. Market appears cautious ahead of RBI Policy on the 29^th October. So, further movement depends on the outcome of th policy. If RBI Policy disappoints, further fall too can not be ruled out. At the same time, as we enter the last week before Diwali, cautious optimism too can not be ruled out. Hence, this week is crucial as to further fall for about Two weeks or rise on the eve of Diwali. Most of the results of index heavy weight companies are out and they have been generally encouraging. In view of the above normal monsoon and preelction year, rural economy can be expected to do well which would translate to  better disposable incomes and higher growth. However, market is once again close to strong resistance level of 52 week high and also within striking range of life time high which could act as strong hurdles. However, these hurdles would be cleared sooner than later . Whether life time high is achieved  in this attempt or not, market has clearly become a case of “Buy on Decline”. Further, Nifty has been trading in a range of 4600 to 6300 for more than 4 years and is due for a  powerful breakout sooner than later. Certain underperforming sectors such as Financials, Capital Goods and Infrastructure need to do well if the market and economy is to really take off. All eyes are on forth coming State Elections which could be viewed as a  prelude for the forthcoming Big fight. Stock market discounts future in advance and is ahead of economy and fundamentals and bullish sign in markets presupposes improving fundamentals.  Nifty has been making higher bottoms and can be expected to breakout and make higher tops. “Buy on Decline” may be followed for Medium / long term. Traders should be ever vigilant to track short term movements and presently, a close below 6115 would weaken the short term sentiment.  Nifty is  above 200  DMA  and 50 DMA and the only hitch is 50DMa being below 200DMA. While short term trend is  is cautiously bullish  and  but close to strong resistance , it would weaken only on a close below 6115.

For the coming week, Nifty spot is expected to face resistance at
6225,  6300, 6385 and find support at 6065, 5990, 5910.

Nifty appears on the verge of becoming bearish for short term, once it closes below 6115.

Advice for Traders :: Nifty encountered strong resistance at higher levels and closed with a minor decline for the week and is cautious ahead of crucial RBI Policy on Tuesday. If Nifty falls post RBI event, further fall can be expected till First week of November. Hence, caution is advised and short positions can be created after RBI event if Nifty closes below 6115. Further, in view of the last week of Derivative expiry, scrip specific action can be expected.  

WD Gann’s
natural numbers which would act as natural support and resistance are
, : 5891, 5968, 6046, 6124, 6202 ,6281, 6361,6441  during the week.

Further , Weekly Open level is very important for the entire week.
Short positions may be avoided as long as it maintains / closes above
Weekly open and vice versa

MCX Commodities :: 28/10//13 to 01/11//13 … 

Copper :: (446.40)  Copper traded  between 457 and 443 last week and appears to be in consolidation zone. Neutral range for the next week is 455 and 447 and would become bullish on a firm consecutive closes above 456.

Crude Oil  :: (6045) Crude traded quite weak between 6215 and 5937 last week .  For the next week, it would be neutral between 6150 and 6025 and bullish trend would return only on a decisive close above 6200.  In international market, it closed around 98 and reasonable pullback can be expected. In view of the oversold zone and expectation of a reasonable pullback, fresh shorts are not suggested. However, there is strong resistance at 104.25$ in international market and may not go above the level without making further lows.

Gold :: (30734) Gold traded   between 30824 and 29613 on MCX and between 1356 and 1309 $ in international market. It is in pullback mode and can be expected to find resistance at higher levels and again come down. Neutral zone for the current week is 30000 and 29400 on MCX. As long as it holds above 30000, pullback can be expected to continue. In international market too, it is in pullback mode with strong resistance at 1375$. Hence, rate in international market may be tracked and short positions may be taken on rise with $1375 as strict stop loss  or below 30000 in domestic market with high level till then as stop loss.   

Lead :: (134.30) Lead traded  between 135.15 and 131.60 last week and is in pullback mode. It would be in neutral zone between 134 and 131.50. While it is bearish in general, further pullback can be expected as long as it maintains above 133 it may be sold only on smart rise as Stop loss level is far away at 142.  On the other hand, if it goes below 131too, short positions can be created with 135 as stop loss for a possible target of 125 and below. 

Natural Gas :: (227.30 ) Natural Gas traded between 234.6 and 218.60 and is in consolidation mode.  Neutral range is 233 and 222. There is strong support at 215 and in case it continuously trades above 235, bullishness would once again return.

Silver :: (49709 and 22.64 USD) It traded between 50330 and 48255 on MCX . For the next week, it is neutral between 49600 and 48500. As it is trading above the higher end of neutral zone, it can be considered bullish for short term and would reverse only on a close below the lower end ie., 48500.

Zinc :: (118.10) Zinc traded  between 119.30 and 116.55  during  last week  and is in  general bearishness and pullback mode  with strong resistance at 124.50. For the next week, neutral range is 118.25 and 116.50 While it is bearish, a reasonable pullback can be expected if it continuously trades above 118.

Commodity price movement is influenced by USD INR movement.

Commodity Trading is highly risky and strict stop loss is to be followed.