Caution at Higher Levels …. !!!
Planetary Position ::
During the current week Moon would be transiting from Aswini in
Aries to Mrigasira in Taurus.
Sun transits in Sravana in
Capricorn.
Mercury transits in Sravana
constellation in Capricorn and in Retrograde motion from 21.1.15 night till
11.2.15. There could be review of
decisions taken during Mercury retro period and information / statistics could
be unreliable. Mercury Retro period indicates dual movement.
Venus transits in Dhanishta and Sathabhisham in Aquarius.
Mars transits in Aquarius, an airy sign, and transits in Sathabhisham . A fiery planet in an Airy sign normally aids bullishness.
Saturn transits in Scorpio in Anuradha in Virgo
Navamsa.
Jupiter , in retrograde motion from December 9th to 8th April 2015, transits in
Cancer in Aslesha constellation in Aquarius navamsa .
Rahu and Ketu continue their transit in Virgo and Pisces
respectively.
Astrologically, Tuesday could be a crucial day for market with
volatile movements with downside bias.
Nifty’s range during last Thursday and Friday (22nd
and 23rd January, 2015) could be taken as the reference range for
the next Three weeks. Nifty’s range during those days was 8866 and 8727 and
Nifty can be considered bullish above 8866 and bearish below 8727 for the next
Three weeks.
Nifty Outlook for Next Week :: (27.01.2015 to 30.01.2015) …
NIFTY :: 8836 (+324) ( Stock Specific Movements .… )
It was RBI last week and ECB
this time. Nifty went up smartly on all the Five days to close with a gain of
about 3.50%.
With a signal of reversal of interest rate cycle and global
liquidity too set to improve because of QE by ECB, positive outlook was found
in the market. High FII interest is driving our market with huge liquidity.
Advance Decline ratio is not positive last week despite huge run up in indices.
However, in view of the over bought situation, a reasonable retracement can be
expected.
US President visit outcome (in
terms of economic agenda) , Greece Election Outcome, next RBI Policy on 3rd
February and the Budget towards February end are the major events to watch . Ultimately revival of corporate earnings is
the key.
With falling crude oil prices,
macro economic scenario improves for the economy and with interest rates also
being lowered , new interest cycle would kick start the economy on growth path.
With proactive and reform oriented
Government, further revival of economic cycle can be expected.
Budget can be expected to
announce path breaking measures and new
stock market discounts future and inview of the optimistic future,
further optimism in markets is possible.
Once GST becomes realty, most
of the bottlenecks in interstate trade would be removed and there would be ease
of doing business with proposed changes and would attract consider investment
into the country and would further drive the markets.
However, there would be a lag
between effort and the results and once corporate results improve confidence
would further grow.
Market can be expected to
remain bullish with better Government finances, stable currency and strong
corporate earnings.
January month market movement
would be driven by Q3 results, Funds flows into the markets, Government reform
measures and INR and Crude movement besides Geo political factors. As First
full fledged budget of the new Government is only Six weeks away, optimism can
be expected and a prebudget rally appears to have begun. Infra, Power, Housing
sectors could be expected to benefit from the budget. Q3 results of most Banks
are expected to be better in view of the treasury profits. Depreciating rupee could benefit export
sectors such as IT and Pharma. All in all results could be better in general
couple with budget optimism, it is a “Buy on Decline” for the time being.
20DMA, 50DMA, 100DMA and 200
DMA are placed at about 8405, 8385, 8225 and 7785 respectively and would
act as supports / resistances. Nifty
is above all averages .
Nifty continues to be above 200
DMA and 50 DMA too is above 200 DMA (Golden Cross) suggesting that the
long term bullish trend is
intact. Nifty is quoting at a PE of about 22.48 which is more than 20% above the
long term PE
multiple. Nifty PE, though not in bubble zone, is indicating caution and
earnings need to improve over the next Two quarters drastically failing which a
reversion to mean is possible. Psu Banks
seem to be enjoying high degree of margin of safety and qualify for a Value Buy
as market can not complete its bull run without the participation of this
sector. Policy initiatives might improve
sagging Infra and Realty sectors.
.
Strong long term support would
be around 7800
level and Medium term support
is 8200.
Technical Levels ::
For the coming week, Nifty spot
is expected to face
resistance at 8930, 9025,
9120 and find support at 8740, 8650, 8555.
Minor resistances may be found
at 8940, 9020, 9065, 9145 and minor supports at 8730, 8650, 8600, 8525.
Nifty is presently bullish would become bearish only on a close below 8675.
Breakout level for the week is 8950, and break down level for the week is 8445. Nifty
becomes further bullish only if it continuous trades above 8950, which could be
difficult considering the smart rise of last Two weeks.
Advice for Traders ::
Nifty rose sharply due to huge FII interest and positive global
cues. However, caution is advised at higher levels in view of the overbought
position . Stock specific movements can be expected in view of the derivative
expiry. Breakout levels of 8950 could act as a major resistance. However, Nifty
would become bearish only if it trades below 8675.
Further , Weekly Open level is very important for the entire
week.
Short positions may be avoided as long as it maintains / closes above
Weekly open and vice versa
Market Outlook for 27/01/2015 :: Dr B Amaranatha Sastry,
Nifty 8836 +75
Astro
Info :: Moon transits in Aswini and Bharani in Aries.
Tithi : Sukla Ashtami ;
Weekday:: Tuesday;
Individuals born in Taurus and Virgo signs and in Mrigasira, Chitta and Dhanishta constellations may remain cautious in their transactions.
Nifty Range of Thursday and Friday(Combined High and Low of
these Two days) may be regarded as the reference range for the next Three weeks
and can be expected to be bullish above the High of this range and Bearish
below the low of this range. Now the range is
8866 and 8727 and Hence further bullish above 8866 and Bearish below
8727 and neutral in between these levels.
Senstive
time:: 11.10am; 11.55 to 12.40;
Market Outlook for Tuesday,
27th January, 2015 :: Forenoon
Subdued….!!!
Nifty opened with a huge gap up due to global cues (ECB’s QE
programme) and traded in the positive territory but in a narrow range to close
with a gain of 75 points and closed well above 8800 mark. Nifty has been going
up for the last Seven days continuously. While Nifty has been going up, Advance
Decline ratio is negative suggesting a weak market in general. Stop loss for
Nifty long positions may be trailed to 8675 (on close basis). Nifty spot is
expected to encounter resistance at 8875, 8915 and find support at 8790, 8750
for Tuesday. While Global cues, Quarterly results and
Funds flow are expected to
broadly guide the market movement, based on the present market position,
market is expected to trade in a zigzag
manner with subdued forenoon session and could recover in Second half of the
day.
.
Trading strategy ::
Based on planetary position and the aspects among planets, market
can be expected to be subdued in the opening session. Opening is very crucial
because of global cues. Opening level is important for long / short positions
. In view of the huge run up and
oversold position, fresh long positions appear risky and inview of general bullish
sentiment, existing long positions may be maintained only with strict stop
loss.
Breakout
/ Break Down Levels::
Breakoutlevel is 8885 and Breakdown level 8775 for Nifty
spot for Tuesday ., It is unlikely that both levels would be breached., If
Breakout level is breached., It is a Buy on Decline with Low as Stop loss and
if Breakdown level is breached, It is a sell on rise with high as stop loss.
Alternatively, if Nifty is unable to cross the Breakout level, short positions,
can be considered with Breakout as stop loss and unable to breach the breakdown
level, long positions can be considered with Breakdown level as stop loss.
Commodity Watch for 27.01.15 to 30. 01.15
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Commodity and
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Last Week
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Neutral Range for
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Recommendation
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Price
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Range
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Next Week
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Copper(341)
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361- 340
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363 - 352
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Bearish but oversold.
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Expect pullback.. But bullish
>360 only
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Crude Oil(2837)
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3062 - 2822
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3025 - 2900
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Close to temporary
bottom…
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But Meaningful pullback on
weekly close >3025
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Crude Oil $45.59)
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49.10-45.21
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49 - 46
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Temporary bottom could be in
place
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A Meaningful pullback on
weekly close > $49.50
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MCX Gold(27864)
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28278-27623
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27900- 27400
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Bullish momentum.. Buy on
Decline
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26850 strong support
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Gold in $ (1293)
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1308 - 1272
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1285 - 1260
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Buy on Decline Strong support 1239
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Lead(112.25)
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118 - 112
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116 - 112.50
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Temporary bottom could be in
place
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Bullishness returns on a
weekly close above 116.
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Natural Gas(183)
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191 - 170
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191 - 180
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Generally Bearish.. Sell on smart rise
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Strong Resistance around 210
/ 220
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Silver(39965)
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40580 - 38872
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39600-38700
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In Bullish mode .
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Buy on Decline., Strong
Resistance around 41000
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Silver($) 18.30
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18.49 - 17.63
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17.45 - 16.85
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Strong Resistance at 19.30
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Zinc(128.40)
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133 - 128
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131.50- 128
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Resistance around 135
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Neutral
range mentioned above is the range within which respective commodity is neither
Bullish nor Bearish for the week and it is Clearly Bullish above the upper end
of the neutral range and Bearish below the lower end of the range.
Disclaimer
:: Above analysis is based on planetary movements and is
intended for guidance / educative purpose and traders are advised to be highly
cautious with proper risk management mechanism as Trading is highly risky and
not trade only based on the analysis given above.
