Weekly Astro Technical Guide and Commodity Watch

Caution at Higher Levels   …. !!!

 Planetary Position ::  During the current week Moon would be transiting  from Aswini in Aries to Mrigasira in Taurus.

Sun transits in  Sravana in   Capricorn.

Mercury   transits  in      Sravana  constellation in  Capricorn and  in Retrograde motion from 21.1.15 night till 11.2.15.  There could be review of decisions taken during Mercury retro period and information / statistics could be unreliable. Mercury Retro period indicates dual movement.

Venus transits in  Dhanishta and  Sathabhisham   in   Aquarius.

Mars transits in  Aquarius, an airy sign, and transits in  Sathabhisham . A fiery planet in an Airy sign normally aids bullishness.

Saturn transits in  Scorpio  in Anuradha in Virgo Navamsa.

Jupiter , in retrograde motion from December 9^th   to 8^th April 2015, transits in  Cancer in Aslesha constellation in   Aquarius navamsa .

Rahu and Ketu continue their transit in Virgo and Pisces respectively.

Astrologically, Tuesday could be a crucial day for market with volatile movements with downside bias.

Nifty’s range during last Thursday and Friday (22^nd and 23^rd January, 2015) could be taken as the reference range for the next Three weeks. Nifty’s range during those days was 8866 and 8727 and Nifty can be considered bullish above 8866 and bearish below 8727 for the next Three weeks.

Nifty Outlook for Next Week :: (27.01.2015 to 30.01.2015) …  

 NIFTY :: 8836 (+324) (  Stock Specific Movements .… )

It was RBI last week and ECB this time. Nifty went up smartly on all the Five days to close with a gain of about 3.50%.

With a signal of  reversal of interest rate cycle and global liquidity too set to improve because of QE by ECB, positive outlook was found in the market. High FII interest is driving our market with huge liquidity. Advance Decline ratio is not positive last week despite huge run up in indices. However, in view of the over bought situation, a reasonable retracement can be expected.   

US President visit outcome (in terms of economic agenda) , Greece Election Outcome, next RBI Policy on 3^rd February and the Budget towards February end are the major events to watch .  Ultimately revival of corporate earnings is the key.

With falling crude oil prices, macro economic scenario improves for the economy and with interest rates also being lowered , new interest cycle would kick start the economy on growth path. With proactive and reform oriented  Government, further revival of economic cycle can be expected.

Budget can be expected to announce path breaking measures and new  stock market discounts future and inview of the optimistic future, further optimism in markets is possible.

Once GST becomes realty, most of the bottlenecks in interstate trade would be removed and there would be ease of doing business with proposed changes and would attract consider investment into the country and would further drive the markets.

However, there would be a lag between effort and the results and once corporate results improve confidence would further grow.

Market can be expected to remain bullish with better Government finances, stable currency and strong corporate earnings. 

January month market movement would be driven by Q3 results, Funds flows into the markets, Government reform measures and INR and Crude movement besides Geo political factors. As First full fledged budget of the new Government is only Six weeks away, optimism can be expected and a prebudget rally appears to have begun. Infra, Power, Housing sectors could be expected to benefit from the budget. Q3 results of most Banks are expected to be better in view of the treasury profits.  Depreciating rupee could benefit export sectors such as IT and Pharma. All in all results could be better in general couple with budget optimism, it is a “Buy on Decline” for the time being.

20DMA, 50DMA, 100DMA and 200 DMA are placed at about 8405, 8385, 8225 and 7785 respectively and would

act as supports / resistances. Nifty is above all averages .

Nifty continues to be above 200 DMA and 50 DMA too is above 200 DMA (Golden Cross) suggesting that the

long term bullish trend is intact.   Nifty is quoting at a PE of about 22.48 which is more than  20% above the

 long term PE multiple.  Nifty PE, though not in bubble zone, is indicating caution and earnings need to improve over the next Two quarters drastically failing which a reversion to mean is possible.  Psu Banks seem to be enjoying high degree of margin of safety and qualify for a Value Buy as market can not complete its bull run without the participation of this sector.  Policy initiatives might improve sagging Infra and Realty sectors.

 .

Strong long term support would be around 7800

level and Medium term support is 8200. 

Technical Levels ::

For the coming week, Nifty spot is expected to face

resistance at 8930,  9025, 9120 and find support at 8740, 8650, 8555.

Minor resistances may be found at 8940, 9020, 9065, 9145  and minor supports at 8730, 8650, 8600, 8525.

Nifty is presently bullish would become bearish only on a close below 8675.

Breakout level for the week is 8950,  and break down level for the week is 8445. Nifty becomes further bullish only if it continuous trades above 8950, which could be difficult considering the smart rise of last Two weeks.

Advice for Traders ::

Nifty rose sharply due to huge FII interest and positive global cues. However, caution is advised at higher levels in view of the overbought position . Stock specific movements can be expected in view of the derivative expiry. Breakout levels of 8950 could act as a major resistance. However, Nifty would become bearish only if it trades below 8675.

Further , Weekly Open level is very important for the entire week.
Short positions may be avoided as long as it maintains / closes above
Weekly open and vice versa

Market  Outlook for 27/01/2015 :: Dr B Amaranatha Sastry,

Nifty                               8836   +75

   

Astro Info :: Moon transits in  Aswini and Bharani in Aries.   

Tithi : Sukla Ashtami  ; Weekday:: Tuesday;

Individuals born in Taurus and Virgo  signs and in Mrigasira, Chitta and Dhanishta  constellations    may remain cautious in their transactions.

Nifty Range of Thursday and Friday(Combined High and Low of these Two days) may be regarded as the reference range for the next Three weeks and can be expected to be bullish above the High of this range and Bearish below the low of this range. Now the range is  8866 and 8727 and Hence further bullish above 8866 and Bearish below 8727 and neutral in between these levels.

Senstive time:: 11.10am; 11.55 to 12.40;

 

 

Market Outlook for Tuesday, 27th January, 2015  :: Forenoon Subdued….!!!

Nifty opened with a huge gap up due to global cues (ECB’s QE programme) and traded in the positive territory but in a narrow range to close with a gain of 75 points and closed well above 8800 mark. Nifty has been going up for the last Seven days continuously. While Nifty has been going up, Advance Decline ratio is negative suggesting a weak market in general. Stop loss for Nifty long positions may be trailed to 8675 (on close basis). Nifty spot is expected to encounter resistance at 8875, 8915 and find support at 8790, 8750 for  Tuesday.   While Global cues, Quarterly results   and  Funds flow  are expected to broadly guide the market movement, based on the present market position, market  is expected to trade in a zigzag manner with subdued forenoon session and could recover in Second half of the day.

.
Trading strategy :: 

Based on planetary position and the aspects among planets, market can be expected to be subdued in the opening session. Opening is very crucial because of global cues. Opening level is important for long / short positions .  In view of the huge run up and oversold position, fresh long positions appear risky and inview of general bullish sentiment, existing long positions may be maintained only with strict stop loss.

Breakout / Break Down Levels::

Breakoutlevel  is 8885 and Breakdown level 8775 for Nifty spot for Tuesday .,  It is unlikely that both levels would be breached., If Breakout level is breached., It is a Buy on Decline with Low as Stop loss and if Breakdown level is breached, It is a sell on rise with high as stop loss. Alternatively, if Nifty is unable to cross the Breakout level, short positions, can be considered with Breakout as stop loss and unable to breach the breakdown level, long positions can be considered with Breakdown level as stop loss.

Commodity Watch for 27.01.15 to 30. 01.15

COMMODITY WATCH ::::

Commodity and Last Week Neutral Range for Recommendation Price Range Next Week Copper(341) 361- 340 363 - 352 Bearish but oversold. Expect pullback.. But bullish >360 only Crude Oil(2837) 3062 - 2822 3025 - 2900 Close to temporary bottom…   But Meaningful pullback on weekly close >3025 Crude Oil $45.59) 49.10-45.21 49 - 46 Temporary bottom could be in place A Meaningful pullback on weekly close > $49.50 MCX Gold(27864) 28278-27623 27900- 27400 Bullish momentum.. Buy on Decline 26850 strong support Gold in $ (1293) 1308 - 1272 1285 - 1260 Buy on Decline  Strong support 1239 Lead(112.25) 118 - 112 116 -  112.50 Temporary bottom could be in place Bullishness returns on a weekly close above 116. Natural Gas(183) 191 - 170 191 - 180 Generally Bearish..  Sell on smart rise Strong Resistance around 210 / 220 Silver(39965) 40580 - 38872 39600-38700 In Bullish mode . Buy on Decline., Strong Resistance around 41000 Silver($) 18.30 18.49  - 17.63 17.45 - 16.85 Strong Resistance at 19.30 Zinc(128.40) 133 - 128 131.50- 128 Resistance around 135

Neutral range mentioned above is the range within which respective commodity is neither Bullish nor Bearish for the week and it is Clearly Bullish above the upper end of the neutral range and Bearish below the lower end of the range.

Disclaimer ::  Above analysis  is based on planetary movements and is intended for guidance / educative purpose and traders are advised to be highly cautious with proper risk management mechanism as Trading is highly risky and not trade only based on the analysis given above.