Weekly Astro Technical Guide and Commodity Watch

Caution at Higher Levels  …. !!!

 Planetary Position ::  During the current week Moon would be transiting  from Hastha in Virgo to Anuradha in Scorpio.

Sun transits in  Uttarashadha in  Sagittarius and Capricorn. Sun ingresses into Capricorn on 14^th January at 7.05pm in Cancer Lagna and suggests a steady to Bullish month.

Mercury   transits  in      Sravana  constellation in  Capricorn.

Venus transits in   Sravana in  Capricorn.

Mars transits in  Aquarius, an airy sign, and transits in Dhanishta and Sathabhisham . A fiery planet in an Airy sign normally aids bullishness.

Saturn transits in  Scorpio  in Anuradha in Virgo Navamsa.

Jupiter , in retrograde motion from December 9^th   to 8^th April 2015, transits in  Cancer in Aslesha constellation in    Pisces  navamsa .

Rahu and Ketu continue their transit in Virgo and Pisces respectively.

Mercury and Venus in sextile to Uranus is a bullish combination while Moon,s conjunction / transit between Rahu and Saturn during the week is a cause for concern. Second half of the week i.e., 15 and 16^th are to be watched carefully as selling could emerge.

Nifty Outlook for Next Week :: (12.01.2015 to 16.01.2015) …  

 NIFTY :: 8285 (-110) (Bullish above 8325 and Bearish below 8200 … )

Nifty experienced a roller coaster ride last week with a swing of about 650 points (8445 to 8065 and back to 8300) because of global cues. Infy started off Q3 earnings season on a positive note and could be expected generally from other sectors too. Banking sector is likely to deliver better results due to treasury profits. If Bank, IT, Pharma  and Auto sectors deliver better, despite some drag from other sectors, positive sentiment could prevail. However, most positives are factored into the present valuations and only a dream budget and earnings growth only would provide further fillip to the market. With improving macro fundamentals with falling crude oil price, falling CAD, it would provide more leeway to Government for reforms. Once interest cycle is revived by reducing the rates, a new economic cycle would start and market has discounted to some extent. Market can be expected to remain bullish with better Government finances, stable currency and strong corporate earnings.  

January month market movement would be driven by Q3 results, Funds flows into the markets, Government reform measures and INR and Crude movement besides Geo political factors. As First full fledged budget of the new Government is only Seven weeks away, optimism can be expected and a prebudget rally is quite possible. Infra, Power, Housing sectors could be expected to benefit from the budget. Q3 results of most Banks are expected to be better in view of the treasury profits.  Depreciating rupee could benefit export sectors such as IT and Pharma. All in all results could be better in general couple with budget optimism, it is a “Buy on Decline” for the time being.

20DMA, 50DMA, 100DMA and 200 DMA are placed at about 8225, 8335, 8155 and 7685 respectively and would

act as supports / resistances. Nifty is below 50DMA and  above other averages and  100DMA and could act as good support.

Nifty continues to be above 200 DMA and 50 DMA too is above 200 DMA (Golden Cross) suggesting that the

long term bullish trend is intact.   Nifty is quoting at a PE of about 21.50 which is about 19% above the

 long term PE multiple.  TTM EPS and  PE would improve after Q3 results.  Psu Banks seem to be enjoying high degree of margin of safety and qualify for a Value Buy as market can not complete its bull run with out the participation of this sector.  Policy initiatives might improve sagging Infra and Realty sectors.

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Strong long term support would be around 7700

level and Medium term support is 8150. 

Technical Levels ::

For the coming week, Nifty spot is expected to face

resistance at 8375,  8470, 8560 and find support at 8195, 8100, 8015.

Minor resistances may be found at 8400, 8490, 8545, 8635  and minor supports at 8165, 8075, 8020, 7930.

Nifty is presently neutral with bullish bias and would become bullish on a close above 8325 and would become bearish below 8200 (on close basis).

Breakout level for the week is 8545,  and break down level for the week is 7970. Since both the levels are far away, it could trade in between both of them during the week and both the levels could act as strong support / resistance.

Advice for Traders ::

Nifty fell sharply without crossing 8450 as mentioned in this column. For the current week, a close above 8325 would mean further bullishness and a close below 8200 would mean bearishness. Further, Q3 results would influence specific companies / sectors. Wide fluctuations could be expected during the current week also.

Further , Weekly Open level is very important for the entire week.
Short positions may be avoided as long as it maintains / closes above
Weekly open and viceversa.

Market Outlook for Monday, 12th January, 2015  :: Zigzag / Volatile Movements  ….!!!

Nifty opened with an upside gap due to global cues but fell sharply by 12.30pm and recovered after Infy’s Q3 results and closed with a gin of  50 points. Nifty is close to getting into short term bullishness once again (if it closes above 8300). Presently, it is in neutral mode with bullish bias. Nifty spot is expected to encounter resistance at 8325, 8360 and find support at 8245, 8210 for Monday.   While Global cues  and  Funds flow  are expected to broadly guide the market movement, based on the present market position, market  is expected to trade in a zigzag / volatile manner with alternate bouts of bullishness and bearishness.

 

Astro Info :: Moon transits in  Hastha  in Virgo   and market can be expected to  experience volatile movements with alternate bouts of bullishness  and bearishness and remain bullish during last One hour.

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Trading strategy ::  After 2pm,  If Nifty trades above Average Traded Price, long positions can be considered with suitable stop loss to be closed by end of the day.

Sensitive / Trend change time::  9.45am; 2.45pm.,

Breakout / Break Down Levels::

Breakoutlevel  is 8332 and Breakdown level 8162 for Nifty spot for Monday .,  It is unlikely that both levels would be breached., If Breakout level is breached., It is a Buy on Decline with Low as Stop loss and if Breakdown level is breached, It is a sell on rise with high as stop loss. Alternatively, if Nifty is unable to cross the Breakout level, short positions, can be considered with Breakout as stop loss and unable to breach the breakdown level, long positions can be considered with Breakdown level as stop loss.

Individuals born in Libra and Aquarius  signs and in Punarvasu, Visakha and Poorvabhadra   may remain cautious in their transactions.

Disclaimer ::  Above analysis / guidance is based on planetary movements and traders are advised to be highly cautious with proper risk management mechanism as Trading is highly risky.

Commodity Watch for 12.01.15 to 16.01.15

COMMODITY WATCH ::::

Week 12.01.15 to 16.01.15
Commodity and	Last Week	Neutral Range for	Recommendation
Price	Range	Next Week
Copper(382)	398- 381	395 - 390	Breaches recent low of 390
			Bearish and Oversold..
Crude Oil(2981)	3380 - 2946	3315 - 3175	Quite Weak.. Meaningful pullback only above 3350
Crude Oil $48.36)	52.73-46.83	52.50 - 49.50	Quite bearish.. Meaningful pullback only above 53$
MCX Gold(26800)	27448-26668	27200- 26800	USD INR movement impacting domestic price
			In consolidation phase.
Gold in $ (1216)	1224 - 1178	1212 - 1190	In consolidation phase.
Lead(115.55)	119.55 - 114.20	119 -  116	Down side target achieved.,
			Consolidation / pullback likely
Natural Gas(183)	203 - 177	193 - 183	In Bearish mode…
			Sell on strong rally, if any.
Silver(36833)	38136 - 36385	37500-36600	USD INR movement impacting domestic price
Silver($) 16.42	16.82  - 15.55	16.50 - 16.00	In Consolidation mode
Zinc(133.75)	139 - 133.75	138 - 135	Strong support around 132

Neutral range mentioned above is the range within which respective commodity is neither Bullish nor Bearish for the week and it is Clearly Bullish above the upper end of the neutral range and Bearish below the lower end of the range.

Disclaimer ::  Above analysis / guidance is based on planetary movements and traders are advised to be highly cautious with proper risk management mechanism as Trading is highly risky.