Consolidation with Bullish Bias …. !!!
Planetary Position ::
During the current week Moon would be transiting from Poorvashadha
to Sathabhisham in Aquarius
Sun transits in Uttarashadha
in Capricorn.
Mercury transits in Sravana
constellation in Capricorn and gets into Retrograde motion
from 21.1.15 night till 11.2.15. There
could be review of decisions taken during Mercury retro period and information
/ statistics could be unreliable. Mercury Retro period indicates dual movement.
Venus transits in Dhanishta in Capricorn and Aquarius.
Mars transits in Aquarius, an airy sign, and transits in Sathabhisham . A fiery planet in an Airy sign normally aids bullishness.
Saturn transits in Scorpio in Anuradha in Virgo
Navamsa.
Jupiter , in retrograde motion from December 9th to 8th April 2015, transits in
Cancer in Aslesha constellation in Aquarius navamsa .
Rahu and Ketu continue their transit in Virgo and Pisces
respectively.
Mercury Jupiter Retrograde position and Venus moving to Aquarius
from 23rd indicates temporary topping out towards end of the week.
Next week (27th January) could begin on a bearish note , hence
caution is advised towards weekend.
Nifty Outlook for Next Week :: (19.01.2015 to 23.01.2015) …
NIFTY :: 8514 (+229) (Bullish Bias … Caution at
Higher Levels.… )
It is RBI this time.. Decision of RBI to cut interest rates ahead
of policy meet sent the market up smartly on Thursday as a fitting reply to
fall of January 6th.
With falling crude oil prices,
macro economic scenario improves for the economy and with interest rates also
being lowered , new interest cycle would kick start the economy on growth path.
With proactive and reform oriented Government, further revival of economic cycle
can be expected.
Budget can be expected to
announce path breaking measures and new
stock market discounts future and inview of the optimistic future,
further optimism in markets is possible.
Once GST becomes realty, most
of the bottlenecks in interstate trade would be removed and there would be ease
of doing business with proposed changes and would attract consider investment
into the country and would further drive the markets.
However, there would be a lag
between effort and the results and once corporate results improve confidence
would further grow.
Market can be expected to
remain bullish with better Government finances, stable currency and strong
corporate earnings.
January month market movement
would be driven by Q3 results, Funds flows into the markets, Government reform
measures and INR and Crude movement besides Geo political factors. As First
full fledged budget of the new Government is only Six weeks away, optimism can
be expected and a prebudget rally appears to have begun. Infra, Power, Housing
sectors could be expected to benefit from the budget. Q3 results of most Banks
are expected to be better in view of the treasury profits. Depreciating rupee could benefit export
sectors such as IT and Pharma. All in all results could be better in general
couple with budget optimism, it is a “Buy on Decline” for the time being.
20DMA, 50DMA, 100DMA and 200
DMA are placed at about 8285, 8350, 8185 and 7750 respectively and would
act as supports / resistances. Nifty
is above all averages and would become further bullish once 20MA is above 50
DMA.
Nifty continues to be above 200
DMA and 50 DMA too is above 200 DMA (Golden Cross) suggesting that the
long term bullish trend is
intact. Nifty is quoting at a PE of about 21.75 which is about 20%
above the
long term PE
multiple. TTM EPS and PE would
improve after Q3 results. Psu Banks seem
to be enjoying high degree of margin of safety and qualify for a Value Buy as
market can not complete its bull run with out the participation of this sector.
Policy initiatives might improve sagging
Infra and Realty sectors.
.
Strong long term support would
be around 7700
level and Medium term support
is 8150.
Technical Levels ::
For the coming week, Nifty spot
is expected to face
resistance at 8610, 8700,
8795 and find support at 8420, 8330, 8240.
Minor resistances may be found
at 8605, 8675, 8720, 8755 and minor supports at 8420, 8350, 8310, 8240.
Nifty is presently bullish would become bearish only on a close below 8375.
Breakout level for the week is 8605, and break down level for the week is 8165. In
case Nifty trades continuously above 8605, further bullishness can be expected.
Advice for Traders ::
Nifty rose sharply after RBI’s announcement of rate cut. Nifty
might face resistance around previous high level of 8627 and would become
further bullish if it consistent trades above that level. Q3 results would
influence the prices of those companies / sectors. Nifty, presently in bullish
mode, would become bearish only if it closes below 8375.
Further , Weekly Open level is very important for the entire
week.
Short positions may be avoided as long as it maintains / closes above
Weekly open and vice versa
Short positions may be avoided as long as it maintains / closes above
Weekly open and vice versa
Market Outlook for 19/01/2015 :: Dr B Amaranatha Sastry,
Nifty 8514 +20
Astro
Info :: Moon transits in Poorvashadha constellation in Sagittarius.
Tithi : Chathurdasi ; Weekday:: Monday;
Senstive
time:: 11.20 and 12.20 to 1.15pm
Market Outlook for Monday,
19th January, 2015 :: Second Half
Better….!!!
Nifty traded steady and closed with a nominal gain of 20
points. Nifty can be considered to be bullish for short term as long as it
holds above 8350 (on close basis). Nifty spot is expected to encounter
resistance at 8555, 8590 and find support at 8475, 8440 for Monday. While Global cues, Quarterly results and
Funds flow are expected to
broadly guide the market movement, based on the present market position,
market is expected to trade in a zigzag
manner with subduedness after the opening movements and remain generally better
in Second half of the day.
.
Trading strategy ::
Trading strategy ::
Based on planetary position and the aspects among planets, after
initial movements, market could remain subdued in the forenoon and remain
better from 11.30 . Hence long positions can be considered after 11.30 if Nifty
is trading above Average Traded Price and preferably above Open level with Low
as stop loss to be closed by end of the day.
Breakout
/ Break Down Levels::
Breakoutlevel is 8551 and Breakdown level 8432 for Nifty
spot for Monday ., It is unlikely that both levels would be breached., If
Breakout level is breached., It is a Buy on Decline with Low as Stop loss and
if Breakdown level is breached, It is a sell on rise with high as stop loss.
Alternatively, if Nifty is unable to cross the Breakout level, short positions,
can be considered with Breakout as stop loss and unable to breach the breakdown
level, long positions can be considered with Breakdown level as stop loss.
Individuals born in Capricorn and taurus signs and in Mrigasira, Chitta and Dhanishta may remain cautious in their transactions.
Disclaimer
:: Above analysis is based on planetary movements and is
intended for guidance / educative purpose and traders are advised to be highly
cautious with proper risk management mechanism as Trading is highly risky and
not trade only based on the analysis given above.
Commodity Watch for 19.01.15 to 23. 01.15
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COMMODITY WATCH ::::
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Neutral
range mentioned above is the range within which respective commodity is neither
Bullish nor Bearish for the week and it is Clearly Bullish above the upper end
of the neutral range and Bearish below the lower end of the range.
Disclaimer
:: Above analysis is based on planetary movements and is
intended for guidance / educative purpose and traders are advised to be highly
cautious with proper risk management mechanism as Trading is highly risky and
not trade only based on the analysis given above.
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